The Planning Commission expects glacial reservoirs feeding Pakistan’s
irrigation system will be empty after about 50 years, resulting in up to 40 per
cent permanent reduction in river flows owing to fast depletion of Himalayan
Estimates show that an increase in global warming will be fast melting glaciers
in the next 50 years. River flows would increase in these years. But after 50
years, "there is likely to be a dramatic permanent decrease in river flows by
30-40 per cent in the Indus Basin," reads a working draft of Vision 2030.
It also says that nine out of 10 general circulation models used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project during summer monsoon
will increase substantially. This increase in the overall monsoonal rainfall in
Pakistan is "likely to be poorly distributed" in the sense that much of the
additional rainfall is likely to be in "high-intensity storm ...