It's official: the organisers of the Copenhagen climate conference conceded last weekend that it cannot deliver a final, legally binding deal. Danish prime minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the conference host, is hoping for a "political deal", followed by a legal one in 2010. The question now is how specific the political deal will be.
Speaking at a meeting of Asian leaders in Singapore, Rasmussen said the Copenhagen agreement should be "precise on specific commitments and binding on countries committing to reach certain targets. We need the commitments. We need the figures. We need the action." His climate minister, Connie Hedegaard, says it is "most important that the US commit to bring specific numbers to Copenhagen".
Will it? That's in the balance. Though keen to agree a climate treaty, President Barack Obama is thought to be reluctant to make promises that Congress will not let him keep "“ as the then vice-president Al Gore did in Kyoto in 1997. He wants the climate change bills before Congress to pass before making any firm pledges. This will not happen before Copenhagen.
If or when they do pass, much could change. In Singapore, President Hu Jintao of China again insisted that his country will not commit to reducing its carbon intensity unless the US is fully committed to cutting emissions. Optimists say that if Obama can get a bill through Congress, an international deal that now looks impossible will be eminently doable next year. For the pessimists, climate talks just ran into the sand.