October 2007 Archives

Professor James Lovelock is making similar warnings as those found in this blog lately, that the rate of observable global heating appears to far exceed even the most pessimistic predictions [ark | more\ark] made by the cautious, conservative and at times political IPCC climate science process. He expresses concern that the speed with which climate change [search] is progressing will lead to ecological and social crises as "6 to 8 billion people face diminishing food and water supplies in an increasingly intolerable climate". Earlier this year the IPCC concluded in their fourth assessment that the full range of projected temperature increase by the end of the century was 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius, with a best estimate range of 1.8 to 4.0 degrees Celsius (linked Guardian article differs).

Yet Professor Lovelock believes even this quite substantial and dramatic rate of global warming understates the speed with which climate is changing now. IPCC predictions made earlier this year appear to be dramatically outdated already, as global heating impacts have revealed themselves in actuality rather than models. Troublingly Lovelock suggests this means that staggered, slow efforts to reduce emissions and promote sustainable development will fail due to sheer inertia and lack of time. He states "we are at war with the Earth and as in a blitzkrieg, events proceed faster than we can respond ... For this reason alone, it is probably too late for sustainable development... implementing Kyoto or some super-Kyoto is most unlikely to succeed" largely because of climatic feedbacks.

"Humanity is changing Earth's climate so fast and devouring resources so voraciously that it is poised to bequeath a ravaged planet to future generations" [ark] -- so finds the fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4). The report is published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and was compiled by 390 experts using two decades of data. At over six billion, the human population is now so big that "the amount of resources needed to sustain it exceeds what is available". Regional predictions are equally grim [ark]. Another report this week published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society predicts that in coming centuries rising temperatures could wipe out more than half of the earth's species [ark].

A new study indicates atmospheric CO2 is increasing swiftly [ark] "due to faster economic growth coupled with a halt in carbon intensity reductions [search], in addition to natural sinks [search] removing a smaller proportion of emissions from the air." This is very important and confirms the trend that climate change is happening in an abrupt [search] and potentially runaway [search] manner.

It has become abundantly clear that pledges to cut emission by x% in 2050 are pretty meaningless, and that the emphasis must be upon substantial essentially immediate emission cuts even as work for the long term goal. We at Ecological Internet would like to see an on average 20% goal for national greenhouse gas emission cuts by 2015. The focus should be upon energy conservation, efficiency and heavily subsidizing the ramping up of renewable energy systems known to work.

The findings published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the US found that “fifty years ago, for every tonne of CO2 emitted, 600kg were removed by natural sinks. In 2006 only 550kg were removed per tonne and that amount is falling. In addition to the growth of global population and wealth, we now know that significant contributions to the growth of atmospheric CO2 arise from the slow down of natural sinks and the halt to improvements in carbon intensity."

For the first time in the nation, a state regulatory agency in Kansas "has turned down a permit for a large coal-fired power plant [ark] solely because of the global warming gases it would emit." [more\ark | more2\ark2] This sets a magnificent precedent building upon sentiment nationwide [ark] regarding the absolute climate necessity to not build any further coal plants that emit their emissions into the atmosphere. The continuing use of coal, much less its expansion, is the greatest destroyer of the Earth's climate [search], and it is leading to human caused climate disasters.

Al Gore and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have won the Nobel Peace Prize [ark]! It was awarded "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." This is absolutely fantastic and well-deserved news. Mr. Gore has been a friend of the environment for decades, has tremendously increased awareness regarding climate change [search], and had the Presidential election not been stolen, would have been the greenest President ever. He has gone from a voice in the wilderness, mocked as the ozone man, to a reasoned green international stateman. And the IPCC [search] has done a fantastic job achieving and disseminating the most current global scientific consensus on climate change.

UPDATE: RealClimate is at odds with Flannery's findings that in terms of carbon equivalency we are past 450ppm. The main thrust of my comments stand: we are perilously close if not past dangerous levels of emissions now, and clearly warming is occurring more rapidly than generally predicted.

"Strong worldwide economic growth has accelerated the level of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere to a dangerous threshold [ark] scientists had not expected for another decade... the level of climate-changing gases in the atmosphere has already reached critical levels." I would like to formally congratulate the fossil fuel industries, their "skeptic" apologists, President Bush and the rest of the ruling oil oligarchy, and every opulent consumer gorging themselves upon natural resources accessed by liquidating the habitat they depend upon for life. Because of our unfailing defense of wasteful, excessive energy use; and refusal to change personally and societally, the Earth is now guaranteed to undergo deadly climate change [ark | more/ark].

By the reckoning of acclaimed author and scientist Tim Flannery, human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have now passed 455 parts per million in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent [search] (based upon warming potential of 30 greenhouse gases). This exceeds the generally accepted level of GHGs where deadly climate change [search] is assured. The resulting two degrees celsius of warming is widely considered the point where ecosystem collapse, agricultural failure and extreme weather become inevitable, permanent and deadly.

The global campaign to ensure biofuels are not produced at the expense of ancient rainforests appears to be yielding positive results, as these efforts are costing oil palm market share in Europe. Ecological Internet's work has been instrumental to this success, as we were the first environmental organization to raise concerns regarding rainforest destruction and biofuel production [search]. Our latest efforts highlight murderous biofuel production in Colombia [alert]. It is nonsensical to grow a crop for its purported benefits in addressing climate change by clearing ancient rainforests thus releasing their carbon. Within an ever growing coalition, we have worked long and hard to raise awareness and build the campaign. Quite simply, there is not enough arable land, water or surplus food supplies to grow an appreciable share of the world's energy needs from biofuels; and by trying both climate and rainforests will be irrevocably destroyed.

We are assured by Florida's Governor Crist that the American lifestyle is not incompatible with the need to address climate change [search] and reduce fossil fuel consumption. As paraphrased by Reuters, "Americans do not need to pare back their lifestyles to help protect the global environment but may need to use sugar or orange peel to power their energy-guzzling Hummers and Cigarette boats. " It was awfully decent of Mr. Crist, a Republican, to unlike his compatriots, even acknowledge global heating is occurring, and introduce very modest efforts in Florida to reduce emissions. Yet he is dead wrong about what will be required to address climate change.

Australia, already suffering some of the most evident impacts of climate change anywhere [search] and ravaged by a monumental climate change enhanced drought [search], has this week been further buffeted by scientific predictions regarding climate change [more | more2] from its own government scientists that border upon apocalyptic. The first comprehensive climate projections since 2001 from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia's national science agency, presented dire new evidence that Australia faces a sharp rise in temperatures, danger from bushfires, and severe drought if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed.

Sydney's temperature is predicted to rise by an average 4.3C by 2070, drought months are expected to increase by 20% nationwide, and a nationwide increase of temperature of 1.0C by 2030 is now considered unavoidable. Sadly, the nation is failing miserably to mobilize to reduce energy use and emissions, continues to clearcut its native forests, and refuses to participate in good faith with international cooperation on establishment of mandatory emission cut targets. Australia teeters upon continental scale ecological collapse, yet parties on like there is no tomorrow, ensuring this may indeed be the case