All of the predicted catastrophic consequences of climate change are happening already, though not yet ramped up to their full potential for death and destruction. We are already witnessing the world's first climate change war in Darfur, Sudan [more | more2]; and the first continental scale emergency in Australia's "big dry" drought. It has been suggested that the real root of the Darfur conflict is ferocious drought and famine that since mid-1980s transformed Sudan and the whole Horn of Africa, diminishing rainfall in northern Darfur by 40 percent and turning farmers and pastoralists into competitors for land and water. "Those who were prepared to kill, rape and pillage were drawn from the ranks of the desperate, ripped from their traditional way of life by a catastrophic change in the weather.. there is the very real prospect it [climate change] will lead to more conflicts like Darfur, as groups who have coexisted until now begin to feel a sense of urgency over the diminishing resources of water and land." Not even the developed world is immune to climate change havoc, as Australia undergoes one of the most intensive droughts [search] in its history. As major rivers run dry, freshwater stocks are so low that irrigation of the nation's largest food growing area may be halted soon. What is clear in both instances is that climate change threatens core human needs. Even as we grapple as a species with learning to reduce our emissions and live in balance with Gaia, you might as well fasten your safety belt and expect continued "extreme water events".

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New polls show the vast majority of Australians and Americans to be concerned with climate change. Bipartisan majorities of Americans (90% Democrats, 80% Independents and 60% Republicans) say "the heating of the earth’s atmosphere is having serious effects on the environment now or will soon and think that it is necessary to take immediate steps to reduce its effects". And more than 90% of Australians believe "climate change is a vital issue" -- perhaps not surprising given the climate induced "big dry" drought [search] that is decimating the Australian continent and may be the first large scale planetary climate emergency. Yet the executive leadership in both countries continues to stonewall even modest Kyoto emission reduction goals, and the opposition parties offer tepid alternatives that are nowhere near as robust as necessary to solve the problem. For the planet's atmosphere to continue operating we need an urgent and dramatic decarbonization of the economy [search] including dramatic emissions reductions of at least 80% asap; an end to coal power to be replaced by renewables such as solar, wind and local biofuels; a significant global carbon tax and well-regulated carbon market to clearly set a price on and reduce carbon emissions; and major efforts to increase energy conservation and efficiency. This as well as addressing underlying problems causing global heating including over-population, militarism and terrorism, lack of global equity and justice, and over-consumption by many as others starve. Change your light bulbs, drive a hybrid if you can, and take countless other personal actions to reduce you carbon footprint, but without these grander societal changes truly adequate to protect the biosphere and atmosphere in particular, the human family is toast.

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In order to get on with major reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, within both a still functional biosphere and viable capitalistic system, the price of emitting carbon must be set -- and quickly and accurately. There are two primary methods of doing so - the establishment of carbon markets [search] and the levying of carbon taxes [search]. The conservative newspaper Financial Times favors carbon taxes, as does Ecological Internet within our Lincoln Plan carbon tax campaign, and today ran an interesting series of articles which essentially find a carbon tax to be easier and more effective in pricing carbon. A recent report likens the individual market in carbon credits to "Offsetting Indulgences for your Climate Sins". The Financial Times was equally skeptical, as their investigation of carbon credit trading concludes: "Companies and individuals rushing to go green have been spending millions on 'carbon credit' projects that yield few if any environmental benefits." They found some carbon reductions paid for in carbon offset schemes are never carried out, and others would have been made anyway. The European carbon market which has been in existence the longest and is most established has given out so many carbon credits that very little reductions in emissions were necessary by industry. Ecological Internet supports a global carbon market that is well regulated, but not as a replacement for carbon taxes, which we are convinced will address the issue of pricing carbon more quickly, effectively and simply. We concur that "while short-term politics favour markets, taxes would be better in the long term because industry needs certainty for investments... A government committing to painful taxes signals the seriousness of its intentions..."

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Even as the Bush government continues its criminal climate change obstruction [search], yet another U.S. institution has entered the fray regarding the seriousness of dramatically reducing carbon emissions to mitigate against the worst possible impacts of sudden or abrupt climate change. This time is is eleven former high-ranking U.S. military and international security issue specialists warning that "climate change threatens to prolong the war on terrorism and foster political instability that some governments will be unable to cope with... it has the potential to create sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today." In the United States this is likely to play itself out with severe fluctuations in water from drought to flooding. These are the sort of fighting words of apocalyptic warning that have gotten me in trouble for years in my personal writings. Through its disruption of ecological systems, economies and societies; climate change has the potential to gravely impact international security [search]. This is why on the spurring of the UK, climate change will shortly be taken up by the Security Council of the United Nation. People from Al Gore to Military personnel can see the threat to our very being, yet from 1990-2005 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Up 16%. What a myopic, slovenly country that can know all the implications of inaction, studying them with weekly new reports of ever more detail and certainly, and yet fail so utterly to make the changes in energy sources, conservation and efficiency necessary to avert global crisis. Yet a nascent protest movement is emerging in the U.S. [more] that by taking to the streets just may be enough to stop the U.S. from hindering efforts to save the Planet.

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UPDATE: Our hopes have been dashed as China has announced it has no plans to cap their carbon emissions but will instead seek to lower the carbon intensity [search] of its economy. This is the same lame U.S. policy. The number 1 and number 2 carbon polluters in the world are increasingly international pariah states.

Japanese media reports that China will soon commit to "participate proactively in talks on an international framework to fight global warming from 2013". This could include negotiated participation in mandatory greenhouse gas emission cuts including carbon dioxide. China will soon be the largest producer of greenhouse gases, yet China has not been obligated under Kyoto [search] to make carbon cuts. This was negotiated as a matter of equity, acknowledging that developed countries were responsible historically for most emissions and developing nations deserved more time to lift living standards before also capping their emissions. Despite major disparities in per capita emissions [search] between the U.S. and China, President Bush has used this as justification for America's refusal to participate in Kyoto. Well maybe, just maybe things will change as China now appears set to bear "its share of responsibility in fighting global warming". The formal announcement may come as part of broader agreement between China and Japan, who are expected to reach a 10-point environment preservation and energy-saving agreement. As recently as November, China rejected proposals to revise Kyoto that would have obligated it to reduce its output of greenhouse gases. China's policy turn around indicates its increasing concern with the serious deterioration of its environment that has accompanied its economic growth. Should China indeed agree to carbon and other greenhouse emissions cuts, the United States' and Australia's refusal to participate in Kyoto, and engage in good faith in ongoing climate negotiations, will be revealed to be the selfish, self-serving and deadly policy it is. The Earth's future depends upon China following through on this pledge.

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The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- the main UN international group studying climate change -- has released the second installment of the IPCC fourth assessment report enitled "Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability" [more | more2]. Building on February's IPCC report which found human greenhouse gas emissions are very likely to be the main cause of recent warming, thousands of the world's leading climate scientists concurred that heat-trapping emissions from industry and other activities are already influencing weather patterns and ecology. A further increase in global average temperatures of 3-5 degrees F is expected to lead to a wide variety of climate change exacerbated disasters including droughts, floods, hunger, disease, extinction of at least a fourth of the world's species, loss of vital global natural areas like the Amazon and Great Barrier Reef, and inundation of coasts and islands occupied by hundreds of millions of people. The report says the poor will be hardest hit by these changes. Even given this litany of serious climate change disasters, many scientists involved in the process express concern the report was watered down by government representatives [more | more2 | more3]. It is unacceptable that the IPCC allow diplomats to edit scientific reports, even as authors note "the report removed any doubt about the urgency of acting to curb emissions of greenhouse gases". It is likely to be worse, much worse - indeed the end of the Earth and her complex life including humans. I have been blogging on climate change, environmental sustainability and forests since 1995 (the longest continuous blog of any kind on the Internet), and many times have been accused of spreading unfounded doom and gloom. My predictions back then pale in comparison to events actually unfolding right now and predicted soon by the IPCC. Ecological Internet calls for immediate urgent climate action based upon these IPCC reports.

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The atmospheric system scored a rare victory in the United States' political system, as the Supreme Court in an important climate change [search] test case voted 5-4 that the EPA must regulate automobile's carbon emissions. It was ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency has the authority to regulate carbon dioxide from automobile emissions, and it has shirked its duty in not doing so [more]. Twelve states and 13 campaign groups brought the landmark case against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Starting Nov. 2006 Ecological Internet campaigned in a unique fashion on this issue, generating ten thousand protest emails to the Supreme Court advising them on the importance of regulating carbon dioxide. Though it is likely no justice ever saw a single one, it was people power finding every pressure point to steer government towards addressing climate change.
There is so much hope in networked communities working on behalf of the Global Earth System.

The momentum is building internally for America to reenter the league of civilized nations and negotiate international mandatory and equitable emission reductions in good faith. We must move swiftly towards a global carbon tax and carbon market regime. And the goal must be rigorous - what it takes to allow the maximum likelihood of the global ecological system absorbing the human climate shock. The focus upon cutting emissions is likely to mean a minimum of 80% greenhouse gas emission cuts by or before 2050.

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It was so hard not to be blogging on climate change these past few weeks with so much going on in climate policy as I had to put in hours instead setting up and tweaking Ecological Internet's new server hardware, software and moving over the content. OK enough crying about that. Now thankfully that is done and I wish to draw to your attention some of what I find the most interesting developments in climate policy in the last few weeks. In no particular order, Ecological Internet and collaborator's campaign regarding the dangers of biofuels from Indonesia's peatland rainforests [alert] continues to make it more into the mainstream media and public eye as an example of "how well-meaning efforts to limit climate-changing carbon emissions may backfire". Scientists are gathering in Belgium to release the second installment - Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability - of the IPCC fourth assessment report by this Friday. IPCC's report is expected to show very serious climate change impacts occurring now and ramping up [more]; evidence just continues to pile in that ice is history, so are many species and surprise, surprise it is the poor that are going to suffer and die more relative to the rich. The climate change movement is as much about social justice and equity as it is cutting emissions and avoiding global atmospheric ecosystem collapse. Goodness, I just realized this only covered today's developments! Climate change is a hot issue right now and will be for a long time.

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