IPCC Report Finds Climate Change "Very Likely" Human Caused, to Continue for Centuries
The United Nations has just released its long-awaited report on climate change [news search], warning global warming is almost certainly caused by humans. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level," the report said. What little debate still existed regarding human causality for climate change has been squashed as the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued their strongest statement yet that human activities are changing the climate. The report, Volume 1 of IPCC's Fourth Assessment, entitled Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic [download official summary in pdf] states the cause of climate change is "very likely" man-made (>90% chance) and "would continue for centuries" (summary of main findings). It is quite interesting to note the changing levels of certainty of human causation of climate change by the IPCC over the last 20 years by this conservative grouping of world scientists. Though authoritative and exhaustively peer reviewed, if anything IPCC documents have and continue to error on the side of caution - partly the nature of science, the need to produce a consensus document, and lobbying by government bureaucrats protecting their interests. It is likely that scenarios of abrupt, runaway climate change [search] are given short thrift in such an environment. Climate Ark's news tracking and search feature provides full coverage of the lead up to, and the release of, the much anticipated report. Now on to climate change solutions [search] - 80% carbon reductions by 2050, massive renewable energy investments, banning coal, focus upon energy conservation and efficiency, and an emergency global summit to get all countries on board with equitable mandatory emissions caps.
New Earth Rising as Ecological Internet Declared Greenwash Free Zone
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Thought you might also be interested in this interview with James Lovelock we have on our site:
http://www.firstscience.com/home/articles/earth/interview-james-lovelock-on-climate-change_9814.html
I think his comments really drive home the issue.
Posted by: Sandrine | February 2, 2007 9:21 AM
I just want to get this thought out there.... because it's really important that people put these two things together...
The biggest threat in global warming is WAR!!!! Has anyone thought about the amount of pollution seeping into our atmosphere from all those burning oil fields and artillary explosions??? But it doesn't just destroy the climate in Iraq and the middle east. Besides the extra heat it creates, all of this pollution drifts around the world and contaminates the air and water everywhere... as absurd as it may seem, even the terrorists need to become aware of this. Even if the win the "fight," what kind of country will they have if everyone is dying from diseases caused by pollution?
Posted by: P Ellis | February 2, 2007 9:45 AM
There is no question that the earth is in another cyclical warming trend based on shrinkage of the glaciers in most parts of the world, except in Antarctica. Multiple ice ages and evidence of the tropical conditions in the past in the extreme northern latitudes confirms the cooling and warming cycles of Earth long preceded the man induced carbon dioxide additions to the atmosphere. But, where is the proof of man’s complicity in this warming trend. I do not care how many scientists have a consensus that man is causing this. Science is based on facts and proof, not consensus.
And where is this article’s historical perspective on how ancient Europeans’ benefited from former periods of global warming – bumper crops in extended agricultural lands, currently uninhabited lands are opened to man with rising temperatures? This is about doom and gloom, more money for the scientists to study.
What happened to the polar bears 10,000 years ago when the Great Ice age ended? Nothing. What happened to the polar bears during the 10th to 13th centuries when the planet underwent a climate warming? Nothing. What happened to the polar bears during warming trend during the Dust Bowl years? Nothing. Who was driving all the SUVs back then? Why, all of a sudden are they threatened now? Climate change is a natural process from the *SUN.* The Sun is a slightly variable star and will make things hotter and colder. Survival of the fittest people. Some animals will die and some will adapt and survive. Prior to 100,000 years ago Polar Bears haven't even evolved yet. Who's crying for the loss of the Brown Bears that disappeared as the Polar Bears came into existence? Puleeeze. Al Gore and Laurie David cry to give up your SUV's and buy a bike. Then they fly off around the country in their chartered jets that spew more pollution in one transcontinental flight than an SUV running for months.
This photo is simply one of polar bears in their natural environment! What do they eat? Fish. Where do they get them? at the edge of ice. Perhaps that's WHY they have the ability to SWIM long distances! These bears are NOT in dire straits.
The fact that there is so little discussion about the observed global warming of Mars is extremely disturbing. Unless we are willing to think outside the box and realize the universe is much larger than our earth, we can never hope to solve the problem. This discussion of global warming only on earth harkens back to the days when the consensus was that the universe revolved around the earth!
This "so-called" global warming threat is entirely political and will lead to the US signing the Koyoto Treaty, which will cost American taxpayers untold millions. THAT is the dirty little secret the media is not telling the public.
Posted by: Kevin | February 2, 2007 1:18 PM
Kevin,
Evolution is a "theory" too - it cannot be proven in the same way that a law of physics or a mathematical theorem can be. However, the fact that several thousand scientists worldwide agree on the causes of global warming is almost unprecedented in the world of science.
Since you say that you don't care how many scientists agree on the causes, I would suggest that you rent "Inherit the Wind," a 50s movie about the Scopes Monkey trial. Having seen the movie lately, I can tell you that you would fit right in in that town in Tennessee.
Posted by: ewoc | February 2, 2007 2:12 PM
I can't believe there are still Kevins left, pontificating discredited science. Ice Age?
Mammoths died eating daises and buttercups, so suddenly they had no time to swallow. Frozen to death in high summer? There was no ice-age, it was a cataclism. And that's how he misses the point on global warming: By ignoring the evidence. We're trying to save your life and those of your children, though in Kevin's case, I think a Darwin award for improvment of the genepool by his absence may be more appropriate. All we want is for people to stop pissing in the sandpit. We all have to share it.
Posted by: Jonathan Carroll | February 2, 2007 3:44 PM
I have to agree with kevin 100%!!!!!!!!!! the earth's climate run along with the output of the sun the sun has been a hell of a lot more active in recent years and we havnt see what our sun is capable of yet, im 99% shure of that too.
kevin dont let people fool you in to "green taxes" "cut emmissions now before its to late" rubbish. how many volcanon's are eruting around the worl at the miniute ?!?!?! can any 1 answer that question??? there is around 18 erupting right now... i wonder have mush S**T thats pummping in to the atmosphire??? far more that we ever have. its the earth's way of burning its own fossil fuels.... u ever think of that? CYCLE CYCLE CYCLE THE EARTH SUN CYCLE dont listen to the SO CALLED leader of the world that are taking back handers left right and center!
Regard's
SH1N3B0X
Posted by: SH1IN3B0X | February 3, 2007 5:50 PM
Dr.Barry
The report is very good. But we have, a hell of a problem,it's two fold. One is dealing with greenhouse gases, and the other is dealing with radical climate change, which is here now. We just had an EF3... tornado down here last night. In the month of Dec, we had an EF2 in the same area. Ive been here 35 year's and never seen anything over an EF1 . Let's face it, last summer record heat this year record cold and winter is not over yet. The gulfstream on Dec 19 2006 turned south for 11 day's. The same current is running 30% slower as of 2003 . One of the set's of 3 salwater chimney's that are the engine's of the gulfstream has all but vanished due to fresh water intrusion. The pentagon put out a report in forbe's magazine in 2003 titled (climate change and national security threats from it}. Let's not forget Katina, Wilma and Rita and the list goes on and on, all over the world. What ever the cause, we have to prepare for the worst case scenario, we have no choice. Someone let the bull out of the pen and instead of looking for it we are all standing around, trying to figure out who did it, enough...WE NEED ACTION NOW. All our live's, may very well depend on it. This could very well be, ( The Beginning Of The End ) IT'S OUR CALL...................
Posted by: Glenn D | February 3, 2007 8:50 PM
Dr. Barry
Food for thought.....We will see riot's in the street's for food, due to climate change. Long before we either roast or see ice sheet's covering the landscape. Just look at California, they produce 90% of our fruit's and vegetable's. The midwest, the cattle are starving to death, no hay, all the grazing areas are buried under snow. 300 million people are alot of mouth's to feed, especialy the way we eat. For the first time, the cow'a are skinnier then the people..........
Posted by: Glenn D | February 4, 2007 9:03 AM
In response to P. Ellis,
Preach on, Brother, and Amen.
If you look at it from no other perspective than the cost in money of the current war, you will realize that Bush and gang have spent enough money to have hung a photovoltaic array on just about every home in this country. Doing that would have made the middle east fairly irrelevent as to this country's energy needs. If you look at it from no other perspective than wasted manpower, those guys and gals could have built enough ethenol and biodiesel plants to pretty much take care of this country's transportation needs. Doing that would have made the middle east completely irrelevant to this country's need. It would also have gone a long way toward starting to reduce the reasons for global warning. And while I'm at it, doing both could have made the reasons for the war on terrorism irrelevant. Have you noticed that nobody is attacking, say, Denmark or Switzerland? Both countries have at least as high a standard of living as does this country. Both have a foreign policy that is basically, "don't f**k with folks." If such were this country's foreign policy, we would not be inciting brave young folks to say, "I regret that I have but one life to give for my country," as they pulled the bomb trigger.
Posted by: Dick Russell | February 4, 2007 10:00 AM
To eliminate the problem, we must first eliminate all the things causing the problem. People are going to HAVE to accept change, the ways of live will be drastically altered. Ban the use of combustible engine motor vehicles. As soon as we take the polluting factors out, are we going to be able to find a way to reverse the affects. I suggest doing as I said at first and working on a way to help in 2012 when the venus mars and moon align and act like a circuit breaker to cool the earth off, to develop some sort of technology that will aid this process. Thank you and I hope that you took the time and consider what I said important information, but you probably already know all this information.
Posted by: Richard Clark | February 6, 2007 7:21 PM
Richard, I took some time to take your information in consideration.
December 21, 2012. This date marks the end of the large calendar and of the cycle of thirteen so-called baktuns after which the earth starts the ‘period of the fifth sun'. According Mayan calculations, which still are astronomically correct, our solar system will be in one line with Hunab K'u, the center of the Milky Way, the place the Maya call the mother womb. Maya expert Peter Toonen writes in the beginning of this year in magazine Frontier: 'At that time our Earth and the sun are in one line to each other in the center of the Milky Way, therefore with Hunab K'u.
There is no mentioning of any 'cooling effect', it simply states that astronomically we are stepping from one era to another. It also states that it will bring a transformation in human thought.
Posted by: Sil de Jutter | February 7, 2007 1:32 PM
first i would like to share with you something very personal, my most selfish desire is to be remembered.
can you have cause without effect?
is my imagination able to transcend the limits of what i now know?
can we avoid our fate by choosing another?
do i need a specialized education to have an opinion on a difficult subject?
Climate change and the causes...
first i believe we need an understanding of time and motion. time is a product of life and our understanding of motion.
also i think its important to mention that life is a variable dependent upon its environments condition. climate change is a issue for all life on earth. there two kinds of forces causeing global warming right now: global climate change as a cycle and a homosapien veriable.
if a person was to drink alcohol and consume another form of depresent you get a multiplication effect.
our inability to identify to cause of global warming is that thier is more then one cause.
mankind can not blame one source so we call this a phonominia.
i have studied this subject very hard with no limitations because i have not been restricted by boundries or politics.
before earth their was pre-earth and an object of planet sized mass(heard a theory like this out of russia) that collided with pre-earth. this fits the sceniaro... a glancing blow could cause the formation our moon, and the fact that it gets further away form our earth should prove it was much closer at one time. many other effects were also the caused by this glancing blow. earth rotates from west to the east also a product of this impact. the moons orbit has a gravitaional impact on our earth causing it to tilt, giving us four seasons and the positive direction of our magnetosphere, or magnetic north.
Time is completely relative to individual interpretation. life is a variable not a constant we have a start and an end but life as a whole continues.
thier is a general belief that their are 24 hours in a day on earth.. this is only true once in all of recorded time. because human life is so short we have a hard time understanding concepts like 100,000 years, 1 million years and 1 billion years, but what we need to understand is that things change, motion is constant. our time is based on motion and we know that time does not stand still because the objects we use to tell time continue in motion. time is only a tool earth uses to help understand the difference between what was, what is, and what will be.
Can we avoid our fate by choosing another?
all earths time can be sumed up as an expression of life during a period on earth.
myans: their calender was more accurate then the one we now use! we can not take this likely.. thier is a reason thier calender stops on a certain day(dec 21, 2012) this day is the end of the current processional cycle, thought to be the day the polar flip will occur, or at least i think it is. and because motion continues they could not use this current long count calender because as the moon gets further from earth the time for this next polar flip(precessional cycle) will be greater then the one before it.
So what is a Polar Flip? i believe in order for the poles to change our magnetosphere will weaken with the motion of earth, and earth will lose its protection to a degree from the suns harmful rays. because of motion(directional flow created by our moons mass).
the source of all new heat energy on earth is the largest source of all heat energy in our galaxy, our sun.
our greenhouse gasses only produce a cause that the earth produces naturaly from valcanos. but we have changed the cycle because we have started the process very early. what does this really mean!?
Effect early melt down of our ice caps, the suns reflector is the color white, not an ice cap, an ice cap is a naturally occuring source of protection from the suns light energy.. but from the suns point of view its only white! we can produce a artifical artic landscape to compinsate.. also we can engeneer it in a way the the suns energy could reflect it and also increase the earths rotation to a constant by way of energy directional flow!)
i leave you with a question. are homosapians ready to call earth home?
send this message to scientists where you live, see what they say.
Posted by: michael shane bohmer | February 7, 2007 3:31 PM
What can we expect when China is making everything in the world and we're reduced to buying and selling their wares? Steve
Posted by: steve | February 18, 2007 4:21 PM
A Layman’s Review of the latest IPCC report (2007)
Is global climate changing?
Yes, undoubtedly. The only constant in climate is change. Average surface temperatures rose by around 0.6°C over the period from 1900 to 2000, possibly a few tenths of a degree less if we correct for the “urban heat island effect”. This warming trend already started around 1800, with 0.5-0.6°C warming over the period from 1800 to 1900, as well. Prior to 1800 the earth was in a global Little Ice Age, which started around 1300, with temperatures cooler than today.
Have atmospheric CO2 levels risen?
Yes. From around 290 to 375 ppm over the period from 1900 to 2000.
Is this increase in atmospheric CO2 levels man-made?
While man-made CO2 emissions are only a small percentage of the total carbon cycle, there is no doubt that man-made CO2 has contributed to at least a part of this increase.
Is there a scientifically proven link between increased CO2 and higher temperatures?
No. Just model scenarios that have been programmed in by the IPCC to demonstrate this link. Certainly the warming actually experienced from 1800 to 1900 and from 1900 to 1940 had little to do with man-made CO2 emissions.
If it isn’t from higher CO2 levels, from where is the warming coming?
We all know that the primary source of energy for Earth is the sun (not the exhaust gas from your automobile). Warming and cooling trends on Earth have always come from swings in solar activity, long before there were any automobiles or humans, for that matter. There are many scientific studies that show this link.
Is the “warmth of the last half century unusual in at least the previous 1300 years”, as the IPCC report states?
No. This is not true. It ignores the existence of the scientifically proven and historically well-documented global Medieval Warm Period, with temperatures higher than today.
But the latest IPCC report (2007) states that it is very likely that man-made CO2 is causing the recent and projected future temperature rise and that this will lead to all sorts of problems: melting ice caps; rising sea levels and flooding; reduction of snow cover and thawing of permafrost; higher ocean salinity; increase in severe weather events including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones; loss of habitat and possibly even extinction for many species; increase of tropical diseases; increased deaths from heat waves; etc.
This all sounds pretty scary (as it is obviously intended to do by the writers).
But is there any sound scientific basis for these dire predictions?
Fortunately not.
To put it in plain words, the IPCC 2007 report is largely based on “junk science” backed up by “garbage in / garbage out” computer models and leading to unfounded “disaster scenario projections”. Some examples:
· uncorrected surface temperature records show more rapid warming than is actually occurring
· claim (unsubstantiated) that urban heat island effect has a “negligible effect” of “less than 0.006°C per decade” has been proven by two separate studies to be untrue
· more accurate, more comprehensive and more pertinent satellite temperature record of the troposphere (available since 1980) is ignored (this shows 0.3°C lower temperatures during last 10 years than the uncorrected surface record)
· claim (unsubstantiated) that discrepancy between surface and satellite record has been reconciled is not true
· models created to show that greenhouse effect from “anthropogenic CO2” is the primary driving force for climate change when there is no scientific evidence or proof for this supposition and a significant amount of paleoclimate evidence to show that CO2 does not drive climate change
· greenhouse effect of naturally occurring water vapor is ignored – instead water vapor has been programmed into the models as a “positive feedback” to man-made CO2, more than doubling the calculated impact of CO2 alone on warming
· impact of clouds is ignored
· effect of variations in solar activity are relegated to a very minor role in driving climate despite fact that past records for millions of years show this is the major driver of climate on Earth
· claims made that Greenland ice cap has melted from 1993 to 2003, causing an increase in sea levels of 0.21 mm per year while latest ESA study of essentially same period shows an increase in Greenland ice, equivalent to a lowering of sea levels by 0.27 mm per year
· claims that reductions in the Antarctic ice sheet have contributed to a further 0.21 mm per year rise in sea levels over the period 1993 to 2003, when latest ESA studies show a net increase in Antarctic ice, corresponding to a lowering of sea levels by 0.08 mm per year
· forecasts sea levels rising by up to 59 cm (23 inches) over next 100 years, when the international organization responsible for monitoring sea levels worldwide states that any prediction for the next 100 years exceeding a maximum of 20 cm (7.9 inches) is nonsense and 10 cm (4 inches) is more likely
· claims that world-wide tropical cyclone activity has increased both in frequency and intensity due to global warming, when the record outside USA shows a net reduction in both frequency and intensity and the US record shows a reduction from 1940 to 1995 followed by an increase from 1996 to 2005 (including 2005 with Katrina and Rita), followed by a drop in 2006, with overall 1940-2006 record showing essentially no statistical increase in either intensity or frequency; also, theory says these are driven by the temperature gradient between tropics and poles, which will decrease with warming
· claims that other extreme weather events, such as heat spells, extreme precipitation events, thunderstorms and tornados are increasing due to global warming when there are no comprehensive reports to show this and many local reports show there is no statistical change in extreme weather events
· claims that tropical diseases have increased and will continue to do so as a result of anthropogenic warming have been refuted by world experts on these diseases
· population checks on polar bears, for example, show these are stable or increasing slightly on average and have increased from around 5,000 in 1970 to 22,000 to 25,000 today despite the warming
All in all, we should ignore most of what is in the IPCC 2007 summary report, just as we should ignore the sensationalist press reports on global warming and its dire consequences and the calls by politicians for immediate action to stop this “impending disaster”.
It’s all hot air.
But why do so many scientists and political leaders plus many in the media support the man-made global warming theory?
“Cherchez l’argent.”
It’s driven by an estimated 2.5 to 4 billion dollars per year in climate research grants, with the grants going selectively to those scientists who make the most disastrous predictions.
The media also love disaster stories, since they sell better to the public than “it’s OK” reports, thus generating more profits for the media.
The politicians and bureaucrats love the idea of “carbon taxes”, higher taxes on fossil fuels, “carbon footprint offset” schemes, etc., because it gives them more money to spread around (and more power).
Not only that, but it’s also become “sexy” and “trendy”, with pop stars, Hollywood figures and many other “media darlings” jumping on the bandwagon.
It’s truly a “win-win” situation for everyone, except for the people that will end up paying for this circus: you and I.
We’d be much better off diverting our time and resources from this non-problem of “CO2 pollution” to address the true problems of today, such as poverty, hunger, genocide, slavery, disease, terrorism driven by religious fanaticism, illiteracy, lack of clean drinking water and electrical power for millions of people, world dependence on a dwindling supply of imported fossil fuels, killing off of the rain forests, real pollution of the environment, etc.
Just think what we could do in these real problem areas with 2.5 to 4 billion additional dollars per year, not to mention the hundreds of billions it would take to truly implement the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol…
Max Anacker 30 March 2007
Posted by: Max Anacker | April 2, 2007 2:57 PM
I think Max Anacker sums it up. Mind you most on here would probably say he works for some oil company like they do to the other people who claim that humans are the main cause of climate change.
I must admit in the past I was generally scared by the government warnings but I now realise it is propaganda starting with Thacher who wanted to close the coal mines and recently more powerful countries trying to stop 3rd world companies develop. Humans thinking they are more powerful than the sun what a load of tosh
Posted by: Richard George | May 4, 2007 5:33 AM