Given overwhelming and robust evidence, the scientific debate on global warming is now closed and it is time for action which will require going beyond science to policy and advocacy formulation. A major new report [more | more2 | more3] by chief British government and former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern finds that the benefits of determined worldwide steps to tackle climate change far outweigh the costs, and that failure to make these investments will lead to "economic upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression", costing "more than both world wars" while rendering "swathes of the planet uninhabitable" and turning "200 million people into refugees". This is not alarmist doomsdayism - it is the best policy predictions based upon the current science. There are many ways to know climate change, science being important but just one of them. The report is the best policy document to date regarding likely apocalyptic social and economic outcomes of doing nothing to address the global ecological crises of which climate change is part and paramount.

"The chance to keep greenhouse gases at a level which scientists say should avoid the worst effects of climate change 'is already almost out of reach... the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs'." The report estimates stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will cost about one per cent of annual global output by 2050. But if the world does nothing, it could cut global consumption per person by between five and 20 per cent. He suggested rich nations take responsibility for emissions cuts of 60-80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050. Further, a global carbon price was needed, affixing a clear cost to pollution, and this could be created through tax [EI's carbon tax plan], trading or regulation. And with only perhaps a decade to act with force, it is imperative that a Kyoto successor agreement is negotiated [more] as early as next year.

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TAKE ACTION
Dramatic Efforts Required to Ensure Australia's Well-Being and Planetary Survival http://www.climateark.org/shared/alerts/send.asp?id=australia_climate

Australia is currently experiencing extreme drought as a result of abrupt climate change [news search], and the nation is undergoing unprecedented discussion of global heating reminiscent of America's own post-Katrina reckoning. Australia's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are among the highest in the world, and Australia's economy is based heavily upon the deadly coal fossil fuel industry [search] which exerts undue political influence. Temperatures in Australia are now expected to rise by as much as 8 degrees C (15 degrees F) in the next century with cataclysmic results. Over the coming decades these soaring temperatures will result in water supplies for millions failing, agriculture becoming unviable over huge areas, rising sea levels destroying substantial coastal areas, powerful extreme weather events including super cyclones and bushfires, and countless environmental refugees overwhelming Australia's ability to cope. Tell them by taking action now: http://www.climateark.org/shared/alerts/send.asp?id=australia_climate

To address their current climate caused drought emergency, Australia simply must ratify the Kyoto Protocol immediately and engage seriously in negotiations to further establish global mandatory emissions cuts for all nations that are equitable and adequate to achieve what climate science indicates is necessary to conserve the global climatic system. The best estimate is that emissions must be cut as soon as possible by 60-75%, a level which requires Australia forgoing the burning of their coal resources. Australia must stop its obstruction of international climate policies.

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (19) | More on Australia climate change drought

They say imitation is the highest form of flattery, in which case Ecological Internet's Climate Ark should rejoice, as Google has launched an imitator climate change search with the excellent RealClimate science site. One would hope that Google, in moving into building a climate change search, would seek to work with people who have been doing so successfully on a shoestring for eight years. And in fact we had offered to share our expertise with Google (who does provide free search advertising for the ClimateArk). Regardless, our search engine beats the new RealClimate/Google search engine hands down. Sadly the search engine at RealClimate only thinks scientific information is important and worthy of inclusion (there must be only a couple dozen sites included) - while ClimateArk's much more expansive search engine makes fully searchable thousands of reviewed sites with reputable information on science, policy and advocacy. Sadly, many scientists think that doing something about climate change is less important than studying it. On the ClimateArk we are concerned with all aspects of knowing about and acting upon Climate Change. Our staff of two with a $50K/year budget welcomes the competition - I just hope Google is up to it ;-)

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (3) | More on climate change information

The result of humanity's burgeoning populations and emissions of industrial pollutants can best be seen at the poles. This year's Antarctic ozone hole is the biggest ever [more]. While expected to eventually recover by itself, the discovery and policy formulation to address the ozone hole illustrate humanity's lack of awareness of planetary ecological functions and their impacts thereon, as well as the ability of humanity to unite to address global ecological issues. In the Arctic polar region, Greenland's melting ice is accelerating beyond even the grimmest predictions of possiblities due to global heating. Meanwhile Canada - itself falling partially within the Arctic - is abandoning Kyoto emission reduction targets. We are witnessing the disintegration of the global ecological system upon which humanity is utterly dependent, and our leaders are failing us. An unprecedented global ecological apocalypse of disease and refugees [more] calls for dramatic responses - immediately dramatically reducing emissions, ending old-growth logging and ensuring access to water as a human right. Buckle your seatbelt, humanity is in for the ride of its life.

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (7) | More on climate change polar regions

Did you hear the joke about how many Australians it takes to recognize climate change induced environmental ruin in the form of deadly drought and wildfires? Apparently more than the lackluster government can muster, as Australia refuses to implement rigorous climate change policies as it is being wracked by the "worst drought in a century [more | more2] with rampant fires devastating agricultural areas, rivers drying up, crops failing, and farmers forced to sell off their livestock." Australia is an incredibly ecologically fragile continent, and Australians have been whooping it up for decades, unsustainably crapping on the atmosphere, rivers and land. It is absolutely crucial that Australia and the United States cease their obstruction of international climate change policy and ratify the Kyoto protocol (expect more activism in this regard here soon). Kyoto [search] is clearly inadequate to achieve the magnitude of emissions cuts necesary to save the Earth and human existence. But it does provide mechanisms that can and must be strengthened.

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (10) | More on climate change Australia

A new report from the Global Development and Environment Institute of Tufts University finds that "failing to fight global warming now [more] will cost trillions of dollars by the end of the century even without counting biodiversity loss or unpredictable events like the Gulf Stream shutting down... spending just 1.6 trillion pounds a year now to limit temperature rises to two degrees could avoid annual economic damage of around 6.4 trillion pounds." The article and report itself correctly grasps the magnitude of the ecological collapse that will be caused by continued greenhouse gas emissions [search] and other environmental wrongs such as habitat fragmentation, water and ocean mismanagement, and toxics. Yet given the impossibility of engineering a biosphere, the report does an injustice by monetizing ecosystem services. It is not that a large price tag will be presented to humanity for failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now. The price will be paid for in human misery and injustice.

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (2) | More on climate change inaction

TAKE ACTION: On November 6th governments from all over the world will be meeting in Nairobi for the year's most important United Nations climate change talks. To date international policy discussions have largely ignored the destruction and burning of Southeast Asia's rainforest peatlands [search]. These wet, swampy rainforests are drained to be cleared for agricultural plantations, and as they dry their peat filled soils are highly susceptible to long burning, carbon and methane rich fires. Peatland fires have for years been one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions - accounting for the equivalent of some 15% of all global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Hundreds of peat and forest fires are once again burning across Borneo, Sumatra and Java. Unless the international community acts quickly, Southeast Asia's emissions of carbon and methane from burning peatlands alone may lead to dangerous climate change including massive sea level rises and mass extinctions. Expansion of oil palm plantations, illegal logging and timber plantations have been identified as the main drivers of the destruction.

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I have long been an advocate of tree planting - particularly native species to abet ecological restoration. Indeed, I have planted over 1,000 myself over past years. Many are promoting the benefits of tree planting to address climate change [search] - suggesting that individual's and business' carbon emissions can be "offset" [search] by planting trees in lieu of absolute emission reductions. There exist many schemes which purport to sell tree planting as a means to become "carbon neutral" [search]. There is growing awareness that this approach is problematic because it promotes the perception that one can consume and emit as they have without concern. It is likely that if emissions are not dramatically cut, temperatures will increase to such an extent that many existing forests and planted trees will die, releasing their carbon and making the problem worse. By all means, plant trees, but do not think this obviates the need to reduce your emissions as well.

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A new study in the journal Nature provides further evidence that climate change can have a direct and rapid impact on ocean circulation and chemistry. Sudden shifts in temperature over Greenland and tropical rainfall patterns during the last ice age have been linked for the first time to rapid changes in the salinity of the north Atlantic Ocean. As the north Atlantic becomes less salty as a result of more rainfall in the tropics, temperatures rose by five to 10 degrees Celsius over a few decades in Greenland. This is the same ocean circulation pattern that moves warm, salty water north, keeping Europe relatively temperate. It is suggested that "the salinity of the north Atlantic is the canary of the climate system". What does it mean for now? Climate can and does shift abruptly as a startlingly complex array of factors change states, and similar rapid swings could be spawned by human caused warming.

Posted by Dr. Glen Barry | Permalink | Comments (3) | More on climate change ocean circulation

In one of the most dire predictions regarding global heating to date, British scientists at the reknowned Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research report that severe drought as a result of global warming [more] threatens to spread across half the Earth's land surface by 2100, turning one third of the planet into a desert.

"The study... models how a measure of drought known as the Palmer Drought Severity Index [search] (PDSI) is likely to increase globally during the coming century with predicted changes in rainfall and heat around the world because of climate change. It shows the PDSI figure for moderate drought, currently at 25 per cent of the Earth's surface, rising to 50 per cent by 2100, the figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent, rising to 40 cent, and the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, rising to 30 per cent."

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