1) US HEADS FOR EU CLASH ON ACCORD (Financial Times) 2) LAW EYED ON GREENHOUSE GAS TARGET (Japan Times) 3) GERMANY TO START EMISSIONS-SAVING SCHEME NEXT JULY (Reuters) 4) UK-EMISSIONS TAXES FAIL TO CURB INCREASES (Financial Times) 5) STATES WARNED-IMPROVE ON ENVIRONMENT (Australian Broadcasting) 6) CANADIANS FEAR EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE-POLL (Ottawa Citizen)

7) CRITICS SLAM GOVERNMENT 'SINKS' PROPOSAL (Japan Times) 8) UZBEKISTAN TO BRACE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (BBC Monitoring) 9) FARES SET TO RISE AS BRITAIN DEMANDS TAX ON JETS (The Observer) 10) JAPAN'S MITSUBISHI TO BEGIN EMISSION RIGHTS TRADE (Reuters) 11) UTILITIES WARNED OF FUTURE SHOCK (Australian Financial Review) 12) REPORT-EMISSION CUTS SEEN NOT HURTING ECONOMY (Globe and Mail)

13) WATCHDOG COMPANIES ON TRAIL OF OWN EMISSIONS (ENN) 14) GM TO OFFER LOW-FUEL PICKUP, BUS (NY Times, Financial Times) 15) GM, EXXON ADVANCE FUEL-CELL TECHNOLOGY (NY Times, MSNBC) 16) FOSTERS BEER COMMITS TO DROP GREENHOUSE GAS REFRIGERANTS (ENS) 17) GREENPEACE'S NEW APPROACH-FORMS GREEN TECH UNIT (BCC News) 18) COURT ORDERS GREENPEACE OFF BP PROPERTY (Fox News, MSNBC)

19) ARCTIC TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN FOUR CENTURIES (Science Daily) 20) FALLING SEA LEVEL UPSETS THEORY OF WARMING (Daily Telegraph) 21) DEEP SEA OFFERS CLUE TO GLOBAL WARMING (Chicago Tribune) 22) UGANDA PREDICTS SEVERE DROUGHT (New Vision Kampala) 23) SCIENTISTS EXPECT MORE MAJOR HURRICANES (ABC News) 24) PRICE OF PROGRESS-A LANDSCAPE LESS RESILIENT (Daily Telegraph)

25) MILLIONS HOMELESS IN FLOOD-HIT S. ASIA (ABC News) 26) FLOODS DEVASTATE RUSSIA'S FAR EAST (CNN) 27) STORM CAUSES FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST (ABC News) 28) BRAZILIAN TOWNS IN DESPERATE SITUATION AFTER FLOODING (CNN) 29) UN SAYS IRAN FACES CRITICAL SITUATION FROM DROUGHT (CNN) 30) DROUGHT-WILDLIFE CONFLICTS WITH RESIDENTS (Panafrican News)

ON THE WEB

31) PEW CENTER REPORT ON GHG INVENTORY ISSUES 32) PACIFIC INSTITUTE PAPER-CETACEANS AND CLIMATE CHANGE 33) WWF SURVEY-WARMING IS SERIOUS THREAT SAY 73% OF US VOTERS

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

34) KICKING THE CARBON HABIT (Boston Globe) 35) GLOBAL WARMING CREATES UNSTABLE EARTH (The Independent) 36) KYOTO ACCORD ALARMISTS MISGUIDED, DANGEROUS (Chicago Sun) 37) FORESTS AND WARMING (Intl. Herald Tribune, Washington Post) 38) WORD FOR WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS DEFINITELY 'WEIRD' (USA Today) 39) PECULIAR ECONOMICS OF GLOBAL WARMING (Financial Post Canada) 40) HOW POLLUTING PLANES COULD PAY-EMISSIONS TRADING (Guardian) ____________________________________

US HEADS FOR EU CLASH ON ACCORD Financial Times August 2 2000 Internet: http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3XDQGBFBC&liv e=true&useoverridetemplate=IXLZHNNP94C

The US is set to clash with the European Union over the rules for cutting greenhouse gas emissions agreed as part of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change. In a submission to the United Nations issued on Wednesday the US said the protocol must recognise that forests and agricultural land were a vast sink for absorbing carbon dioxide, which is thought to be the main contributor to global warming. The US has agreed in principle to cut its carbon emissions by 7 per cent from 1990 levels by 2012 at the latest. With a booming US economy boosting emissions at a faster than expected rate, that target will require at least a 30 per cent reduction in overall emissions levels.

The US is therefore proposing a system that would credit countries for their land management practices. It estimates its forests and agricultural land are removing about 310m metric tons of carbon equivalent from the atmosphere annually. If fully credited under the protocol, that would account for more than half of the roughly 600m metric ton reduction the US must make to meet its commitments. The EU sees the US scheme largely as a ploy to avoid difficult decisions such as imposing a carbon tax to reduce emissions. Scientific uncertainty as to whether trees and soil can in fact offset industrial emissions, the EU says, means land management should not be given the same status as emissions reductions.

Frank Loy, US undersecretary of state for global affairs, said on Wednesday the use of carbon sinks was "part of the deal" under which the US agreed to accept tough reduction targets at Kyoto. But he said the US was willing to phase in full credits for carbon sinks. In a speech in London last month, Mr Loy acknowledged the differing views of the US and the EU. Some in Europe, he said, "think that we have a moral obligation to change our lifestyle as quickly and radically as possible".

2) LAW EYED ON GREENHOUSE GAS TARGET

Japan Times Aug. 6, 2000 Internet: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20000806a2.htm

The Environment Agency has decided to submit a bill on attaining Japan's reduction target for greenhouse gas emissions to the 150- day regular Diet session beginning in January 2002, agency sources said Saturday. The agency envisions including two economic measures in the law. One would impose an environment tax on oil and other fossil fuels, and the other would allow companies and local governments to trade emission rights, the sources said. But the law may stipulate only that the measures will be introduced, without specifying details. Working out an environment tax and an emission rights trading system could be left to later discussions among government officials, the sources said.

They said the delay is being considered because there are many things to be examined, including how much tax is needed to create a reduction in emissions, although the measures are generally considered cost-effective. The new law may also oblige the state and prefectural governments to draw up plans, including forest absorption, on emissions cuts. In addition, the law may establish a system for monitoring emission cuts by state and local governments, they said. Also being considered is a mechanism for buying emission rights from abroad.

The agency plans to consign discussions on the new law to a subcommittee of the Central Environment Council, an advisory panel, beginning Aug. 23, and will work out the framework for the legislation by the end of this year. A law promoting cuts in greenhouse gas emissions was promulgated in April 1999, but it contains no measures other than calling on local governments and companies to work out cut plans. The agency thinks the new law is needed to carry out Japan's commitment under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to cut carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by 6 percent from 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The protocol was adopted by some 160 countries during the third Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Kyoto in December 1997.

3) GERMANY TO START EMISSIONS-SAVING SCHEME NEXT JULY Reuters

August 11, 2000 Internet: http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm?newsid=7764

FRANKFURT - Germany said yesterday it will introduce by next July an electricity trading system to encourage the use of relatively clean combined heat and power (CHP) power production. The system would allow the avoidance of 50 million tonnes (mnt) of carbon dioxide emissions in 2010, up 23 mnt on the level achieved through CHP, also known as cogeneration, in 1998, the environment ministry said yesterday. The system sets a minimum amount of electricity that grid operators must buy from CHP producers, starting at 12 percent of their total purchase and increasing to 20-25 percent by 2010. Grid operators with under or over-filled quotas will be able to buy and sell voucher-like certificates via the stock market.

It follows the passing of the Cogeneration Law on May 18 that protects existing CHP plants from competition by setting a minimum price of 0.09 marks/kilowatt hour (kWh) for electricity from the plants, which is above market levels. Local suppliers can recoup 0.03 marks/kWh from the minimum price from grid operators, decreasing to zero by 2004. The association representing municipal utilities VKU backs the quota system as a means of precluding this decrease. Germany has around 16,000 megawatts (MW) of installed CHP capacity or 12 percent of its total electricity production.

"The cogeneration law aims to ensure the continued operation of existing CHP plants that are at least 25 percent state-owned following the dramatic fall in electricity prices since power market liberalisation two years ago," Environment Ministry Energy Advisor Kai Schlegelmilch told Reuters. "Electricity prices in general will have to increase to the level of long-term marginal costs - from current 0.02 marks/kWh levels to 0.05-0.06 marks/kWh. Once this happens efficient CHP plants can compete on a level playing field," he added.

INDUSTRY OPPOSITION But the associations representing grid operators VdV and the umbrella association for electricity suppliers VDEW say the cogeneration plan is anti-competitive. The cogeneration law follows one on electricity produced from renewable energy - solar, wind, wave or biomass - passed earlier in the year that targets a 12 percent market share for such electricity by 2010. "The consequence (of both laws) will be that one third of Germany's electricity production - some 170 terawatt hours (tWh) - is regulated by a subsidy that amounts to around 10 billion marks," VdV Managing Director Friedrich Kienle told Reuters. VKU estimates the price for residential electricity customers will increase by up to 0.005 marks/kWh by the end of 2000 and by not more than a further 0.01 marks/kWh in the first year of the introduction of the quota system.

VDEW says the two laws and the Eco-Tax introduced last year put electricity at a growing disadvantage: "Politicians are taking advantage of low electricity prices following liberalisation as a vehicle for tax collection," Deputy Executive Manager Eckhard Schulz said. Prices have fallen 30-35 percent for industry and 15 percent for households since 1998. Cogeneration plants will need to have a minimum efficiency level of 0.04-0.06 marks/kWh if they are to cover their production costs, VKU says, and the Environment Ministry adds it will consider the 70 percent efficiency level set by the Eco-Tax.

4) EMISSIONS TAXES FAIL TO CURB INCREASES Financial Times

Aug 10, 2000 Internet: http://search.ft.com/search/multi/globalarchive.jsp?docId=000810000323&query =%22global+warming%22&resultsShown=20&resultsToRequest=100

Pollution from greenhouse gases generated by road transport rose by 9 per cent between 1991 and 1998 despite the sharp rise in fuel taxes that was introduced to help combat pollution. According to the Office for National Statistics' UK Environmental Accounts, overall national emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases thought to cause global warming fell by 7 per cent over the period, due to a fall in emissions from business and industry, especially electricity generation. According to ONS data, published yesterday, the out put of greenhouse gases from households remained roughly constant. But emissions from road transport rose steadily, despite a doubling in the government's take in fuel taxes from Pounds 10.5bn in 1991 to Pounds 21bn in 1998. Over the period, total road traffic grew by 11.6 per cent, suggesting that there was only a small improvement in the overall fuel-efficiency of vehicles, although new cars and trucks coming on the market are much more efficient. Motoring bodies said the figures showe d that rising fuel taxes were a poor way of controlling pollution. Road vehicles account for only 17 per cent of Britain's greenhouse emissions.

However, Chris Hewett of the Institute for Public Policy Research, the left-leaning think-tank, argued that without the fuel tax "escalator" that brought in substantial real-terms increases in fuel duties between 1993 and 1999, the rise in emissions might have been even higher. "The long-term policy of any government has to be to slowly increase the real cost of motoring," he said. "If the price of oil falls, then the heat will go out of the argument, and the government may be able to raise taxes again." Industry welcomed the figures, stressing they showed the improvements made in pollution control and energy efficiency, although the fall in emissions during the 1990s was helped both by the switch from coal-fired to gas-fired electricity generations, and by the problems suffered by energy-intensive manufacturing industries.

Britain has gone further than most other countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the internationally agreed target of a 12.5 per cent cut between 1990 and 2010. Between 1990 and 1997 France cut its carbon dioxide emissions by just 4 per cent, while the US increased emissions by 12 per cent to 5.47 bn tonnes - more than seven times the UK's total greenhouse gas emissions that year. The Confederation of British Industry warned that business should not be asked to bear too much more of the burden of emissions control when overseas competitors were not making similar reductions. "The government has got to address the question of involving the domestic sector in emissions reduction, as well as the transport user: there has got to be a greater emphasis on changing their behaviour," said Richard Jackson of the CBI.

5) STATES WARNED TO IMPROVE ON ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION Australian Broadcasting

10 August Internet: http://www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/weekly/newsnat-10aug2000-55.htm

Federal Environment Minister Robert Hill has attacked the Australian state and territory governments, saying they have not delivered on their commitment to the national greenhouse strategy. Senator Hill has told an insurance council meeting in Canberra that the threat of catastrophic weather events as a result of global warming is increasing.

He says except for the ACT, Australia's states and territories have not made an adequate contribution. He says they may miss out on a share of a $400 million abatement fund if they do not pick up their game.

"We're not interested in cost shifting, we're not interested in just more statements of good objectives," Senator Hill said. "We're interested in programs that actually deliver an outcome of tonnes of carbon saved and they've got to do better than they have in the past if they want to get a slice of the action."

CANADIANS FEAR EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: POLL Ottawa Citizen

7 August Internet: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/national/000807/4543388.html

Canadians want urgent action taken to address climate change, which they are linking to recent natural disasters, such as the 1998 ice storm and the Saguenay and Red River floods, a poll indicates. The Pollara poll prepared for the federal government also suggests that Canadians believe they can personally affect climate change through such actions as increasing their use of public transportation or not idling their car on a cold day. Asked for their impressions of the relationship between climate change and natural disasters, the overwhelming majority of respondents -- 83 per cent -- agreed with the statement "severe weather events are related to climate change."

Only 15 per cent of Canadians are skeptical of the link between climate change and the weather. The poll, released last week, was prepared before this summer's heavier-than-normal precipitation across Canada and the tornado in Alberta that killed 10 people in a trailer campground. The poll, obtained by the Citizen, also indicated that Canadians consider Environment Canada the most credible source of weather information. Pollara asked 1,674 Canadians last November in a telephone survey for their impressions of climate change. The results are considered an accurate reflection of all Canadians' views within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Coupled with other recent polls, the results add to evidence that Environment Minister David Anderson is preparing to capitalize on the growing public appetite for government action on the environment. An Ekos Research poll in May highlighted a rising level of public support for "conditional" environmental activism by the government. This could translate into action in the fall, when the federal cabinet examines a proposed green plan designed to attack smog, cut waste and greenhouse gases, and improve water quality.

The government is considering, for instance, tax breaks for utilities that retire coal-burning plants early or convert them to natural gas as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Michael Marzolini of Pollara said the poll on climate change is "encouraging because it shows that we can take people there if we encourage them. "Some progress has been made. Canadians are showing willingness to adapt and are open to changing their habits," he said. He said the environment has been in the top five issues of concern for Canadians over the past year.

It was only a couple of years ago, at an Environment Canada- sponsored meeting of environmentalists, industry associations and bureaucrats, that Mr. Marzolini reported that Canadians are confused about climate change and its meaning. It seems now that Canadians are beginning to link the growing list of weather- related disasters with global warming and the greenhouse gases that are said to contribute to it.

During the last decade or so, Canadians have witnessed the disastrous impact of unpredictable weather: the 1987 Edmonton tornado, the 1991 Calgary hailstorm, the Saguenay and Red River floods, the 1998 ice storm in Eastern Ontario and Quebec, and the Toronto snowstorm that prompted Mayor Mel Lastman to call in the army. Francis Zwiers of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, said there is a lot of "smoking gun" evidence to indicate that the extreme weather events of the past decade are linked to human causes. In weather models created at the centre, Mr. Zwiers said computer results show "intense precipitation" results from greenhouse gases and global warming. But he noted that statistical data still do not allow scientists to reach a final conclusion on the matter.

7) CRITICS SLAM GOVERNMENT 'SINKS' PROPOSAL Japan Times

Aug. 10, 2000 Internet: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20000810b2.htm

What is a forest? This simple question is among a few key issues of debate that have paralyzed the Japanese government and delayed submission of its proposal on how forests should be incorporated into global warming measures to be decided in November. Late Tuesday night -- a week past the initial Aug. 1 deadline -- the government announced it had sent its proposal on the handling of "sinks" -- carbon dioxide-absorbing ecosystems such as forests -- to the U.N. climate change secretariat in Bonn. The proposal, along with those from other industrialized countries that have pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions, will be debated at COP6, the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in The Hague in November.

On top of its tardiness, the proposal has been knocked by nongovernmental organizations as a dangerous departure from the spirit of the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in Kyoto in December 1997, under which developed countries agreed to cut emissions. Japan is to pare its emissions by 6 percent of 1990 levels -- or 334 million tons of carbon -- from 2008 to 2012. Japan's plan calls for signatories to the climate change convention to adopt the more lax of two definitions of forests. Japan's preferred definition would ignore carbon lost into the atmosphere when a forest is harvested, but would include the carbon absorption attributed to the new forest planted in its place. This interpretation would inflate the amount of carbon absorption credited to Japan under "human-induced activities, " such as forest management. It would thus be able to avoid taking more difficult steps, such as paring energy consumption, critics charge.

Tokyo proposes to achieve a 0.3 percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions through reforestation and afforestation. It's aiming to get credit for an additional 3 percent or 3.4 percent cut through forest management and urban greening. The lower figure represents only the projected carbon absorption of managed forests, whereas the larger number includes all of the nation's forests. In theory, if this proposal were to be adopted and applied to countries with vast natural forests, such as the United States or Canada, they could feasibly meet their treaty commitments without reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It also stands in stark contrast to the proposals of other countries, such as the U.S., that embrace a format put forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a panel of scientists that produce information to inform policymakers. NGOs say the IPCC's format -- in which only land that has existed as other than forest for more than 50 years and is reconverted to forest would count toward carbon dioxide

absorption -- would yield a more holistic approach, and is more scientific, more long-term oriented and less problematic.

After fiercely opposing the inclusion of sinks into the initial scheme for greenhouse gas reduction, the Japanese government had a sudden change of heart on the last days of COP3 in Kyoto. Japan's stance is likely to be unpopular with NGOs and not gain support from other governments, thus risking isolation before even sitting down at the COP6 negotiating table in November.

8) UZBEKISTAN TO BRACE ITSELF FOR CLIMATE CHANGE, EXPERTS SAY BBC Monitoring Service

Aug 4, 2000 Internet: http://search.ft.com/search/multi/globalarchive.jsp?docId=000804006450&query =%22climate+change%22&resultsShown=20&resultsToRequest=100

The first national report on climate change has been published in Uzbekistan. It was prepared as part of the "Uzbekistan - study of climate change in the country" project with financial support from the Global Environment Facility and with UNDP assistance. The work that has been done is one of the first steps in fulfilment of Uzbekistan's obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which our country signed up to in 1993, the head of the "Uzbekistan - study of climate change in the country" project, a leading expert from the Convention section of Uzbekistan's Main Hydrometeorological Service, Tatyana Ososkova, said in an interview to Turkiston-Press news agency. [Passage omitted: the Convention aims to avert risks caused by climate change; national report drawn up gives data on greenhouse gases etc - not quoted; commission on climate change set up] In the course of three years of work we have studied climate change, Ososkova said. The studies of the dynamics of climate showed that the process has already started in the region. Observations of mountain river basins show a reduction in snow reserves. We observed degradation and shrinkage of mountain glaciers. In just a few decades, warming will lead to the border between dry, tropical and moderate climatic zones moving 150 - 200 km northwards and climatic high-altitude zones shifting 150 - 200 metres upwards. The frost-free period and the number of hot days in spring and summer will be 8 - 10 days longer, which may have a negative effect on the productivity of crops and pastures. Assessments of possible changes in the water balance have shown that reserves of snow and ice at mountains will be reduced, evaporation will increase, and accordingly there will be increased losses of water in irrigation zones. A reduction in water resources in the future might entail serious negative consequences, above all in the agro-industrial sector.

[passage to end omitted: the commission will start work on the second report next year] [p4]

Source: 'Golos Uzbekistana', Tashkent, in Russian 04 Aug 00 p4

9) FARES SET TO RISE AS BRITAIN DEMANDS TAX ON JET FILTH The Observer

Aug 6, 2000 Internet: http://search.ft.com/search/multi/globalarchive.jsp?docId=000806002901&query =%22global+warming%22&resultsShown=20&resultsToRequest=100

ENJOY the strong pound and budget airlines while you can. International air fares are set to rise as Britain pushes for jet fuel to be taxed for the first time. The Government has promised to take action as a report from a think-tank close to New Labour endorses the claim that air travel is the most environmentally damaging method of transport in the world.

Holiday destinations, including the Maldive Islands, are threatened by complete submergence because of rising water levels caused by global warming. The air transport industry, which contributes substantially to that warming, needs rigorous control, the Institute for Public Policy Research will say.

Carbon dioxide emissions per passenger mile from planes are almost 15 times the pollution level of buses and twice that of trains, the report will confirm. The IPPR wants financial incentives for airlines to cut pollution. 'Air travel is clearly the most polluting form of transport,' said Chris Hewett, the author of the report - Plane Trading - to be published next week. Fuel for international flights was exempted from duty in 1944 to assist the infant airline industry. The 1997 Kyoto summit set targets for reducing worldwide carbon dioxide emissions but ignored air travel. BA has admitted unnecessarily using 23,000 tonnes of fuel a year when its planes are stacking above Heathrow and Gatwick.

10) JAPAN'S MITSUBISHI TO BEGIN EMISSION RIGHTS TRADE Reuters

August 4, 2000 Internet: http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm?newsid=7699

TOKYO - Major Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp plans to buy $3.5 million worth of new shares in U.S. energy products broker Natsource to enter the greenhouse gas emission trading business, it said yesterday. The share acquisition will be through a third- party new share allocation that Natsource plans in late September, which will give Mitsubishi a seven percent stake in it. Mitsubishi, Natsource and money market broker Tokyo Tanshi Co, which owns the U.S. broker through its affiliate Tullett-Tokyo Liberty, will set up a new company aiming to start operations by next spring. Mitsubishi's shares were down 12 yen or 1.42 percent at 836 yen in mid-morning Tokyo trade.

The move comes as trading houses, brokers and foreign firms eye entry into new energy-related businesses such as trading of electric power and weather derivatives as Japan's deregulation progresses. Mitsubishi on July 24 said it planned to launch an online weather derivatives market in September, enabling companies to hedge against weather-related risks. Greenhouse emission rights trading, initiated in the United States, emerged from international protocol adopted at a conference on climate change in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 setting targets for industrialised nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2008-2012. Under the protocol, Japan has committed itself to cut emissions six percent from 1990 levels.

Emission rights trading is a market for companies generating waste gases that have achieved above-target emission cuts to sell the excess to those who underperform. Another Japanese money broker, Nihon Tanshi Co, last month said that it and other firms including major trading house Mitsui & Co Ltd would set up a joint venture called eRec Co to start an online power sales business for large- lot electricity users. Power sales by non-utility firms to large- lot industrial and commercial users have been allowed in Japan since March 21, drawing interest not only from power businesses but also in related fields and from foreign firms. U.S.-based trading firm Enron Corp said last week it will expand its commodity market business to include online trading in Asia- Pacific weather derivatives.

UTILITIES GIVEN WARNING OF FUTURE SHOCK Australian Financial Review

7 August Internet: http://www.afr.com.au/information/20000808/A55670-2000Aug7.html

Utilities should consider hedging their bets when designing their e-business strategy, according to a Washington-based expert. Mr Dwight Allen led a worldwide Deloitte Research study, 21st century Utility Retailing, which found that many companies would benefit by preparing for a variety of business environments. "There is so much uncertainty about how events will unfold in the new decade that companies betting on one particular vision ... risk discovering that the future coming up to meet them is not the future on which their retailing strategy is based," he said.

Mr Allen told the UTILICON 2000 conference in Melbourne yesterday the research had identified 10 key issues, including future energy supplies, geopolitics, environmental concerns and information and energy technology."We found strong disagreement on virtually every aspect of these topics," he said. "Equally knowledgeable and qualified people hold diametrically opposed views on the correct answers."

The four scenarios developed in the Deloitte study for the decade from 2000 to 2010 were:

"Superabundance": Mainly positive business conditions with economic liberalisation gaining in popularity, which would favour "mega-energy companies" such as the oil majors moving to capture utility consumers.

"Techno-world": Moderately high oil prices, flourishing e-commerce and problems with energy infrastructure, favouring free-standing, technology-orientated companies which are strong on customer relations.

"Second thoughts": Adverse economic conditions, waning support for globalisation and problems with e-commerce hinder the development of major multinational utilities and new entrants.

"Troubled planet": new evidence of global warming leads to fossil fuels being taxed and restricted amid declining oil production, with greater interest leading to interest in micro-generators and energy management.

Mr Allen said the basic message was that executives had to be cautious about the assumptions underlying their decisions.

12) EMISSION CUTS SEEN NOT HURTING ECONOMY Globe and Mail

Monday, August 7, 2000 Internet: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/gam/ROB/20000807/RENVI.html

Ottawa -- Tackling the climate-change problem will only result in a minor cooling of what is expected to be a red-hot economy over the next 10 years, two new studies prepared for the federal government have found. The two reports -- one by the Department of Finance, the other by Ottawa-based think tank Informetrica Ltd. -- concluded that slashing the country's greenhouse gas emissions will shave somewhere between 0.6 and 3 per cent from a gross domestic product that is expected to grow roughly 30 per cent in the next decade. Overhauling the economy to meet Canada's target of a 6-per-cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2010 will provide an initial economic stimulus as money is spent on new technology, the studies say, but will retard growth in the long run. Some industries, specifically those in the resource sector, will be hit disproportionately hard.

However, Informetrica (which predicts a larger economic slowdown than the Finance study) concludes that in the long run, cutting emissions will have "little negative effect" on economic output for real incomes or the country as a whole. The numbers are some of the most optimistic produced to measure the impact of what federal cabinet documents refer to as "the greatest economic challenge since the Second World War" -- meeting the commitments Canada made in 1997 to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases it pumps into the air. The reports are also seen as two of the most significant and comprehensive studies produced.

"It's nothing," John Bennett, a climate-change specialist at the Sierra Club of Canada, said of the predicted economic hit. "A quirky, six-month recession would be worse than that. What it shows is that it's not going to cost us an arm and a leg. It's not going to bankrupt the country."

The studies, which were based on analyses of 16 stakeholder group reports conducted over the past two years, are some of the final numbers Ottawa will look at before deciding its negotiating position for this fall's climate-change summit in The Hague. That meeting is being viewed as the most important since the Kyoto protocol was signed three years ago in Japan, and is expected to be where the mechanisms for meeting the Kyoto targets will be defined. The November summit is expected to feature a heated debate between the European Union, which has already moved to cut emissions, and Canada and the United States, who would take a harder hit meeting their Kyoto targets because their economies are more resource-based. Canada and the United States are likely to lobby hard to get emissions "credits" for their forest management practices and exporting "clean" technology such as nuclear power to developing countries.

The two studies -- especially the Finance Department's, which suggests Canada could achieve a 31-per-cent cut in emissions by 2010 while losing only 0.6 per cent of GDP -- give ammunition to those who say Canada should cast its lot at The Hague with the EU, rather than the United States. The macroeconomic figures, however, hide some grim news for specific sectors of the Canadian economy. Informetrica predicts a 4- to 8-per-cent hit for the resources sector, with the coal industry taking the brunt of the blow. "The coal industry is the one industry that unambiguously faces a dim future. The size of the industry is reduced by from one-third to one-half" by 2015, the report reads.

Alan Johnson, president of the Coal Association of Canada, dismissed Informetrica's report as out of touch with the reality that more than half of all electricity in the United States is generated by coal, a fact he says won't change any time soon. He also said the report doesn't take into account that a zero- emission coal is being developed, although it may not be in place to meet the Kyoto deadlines, which he says are arbitrary.

13) WATCHDOG COMPANIES ON TRAIL OF OWN EMISSIONS ENN

Tuesday, August 8, 2000 Internet: http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/2000/08/08082000/pewclimate_30293.asp

A new report sponsored by the Pew Climate Center singles out 13 companies that are making voluntary efforts to track their greenhouse gas emissions. "You can't manage what you can't measure," said Judith Bayer of United Technologies Corporation, one of the companies cited in the report. "The process of conducting an (emissions) inventory is a basic, no-regrets policy a company can make."

The study, "An Overview of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Issues", is the work of a team from Arthur D. Little Inc.. The report presents a set of principles for greenhouse gas emissions inventory and reporting; describes credible approaches by major companies; identifies key decision points in the monitoring process; and lists information resources available to companies mulling such projects.

"Even for companies that may not be convinced about the link between GHG emissions and global warming, there's still often a drive to inventory emissions as a prudent way to measure GHG emissions," said Chris Loreti, a senior manager at ADL and co- author of the report. Loreti said more and more company leaders believe they're better off reducing emissions voluntarily than being forced to do it by government mandate. Moreover, as the market for GHG emission credits and trading increases, companies see financial benefits in voluntarily reducing their emissions.

"It's really a reflection of a changed attitude about environmental reporting and public disclosure," Loreti said. "Companies nowadays feel a greater sense of responsibility toward their shareholders, customers and the public." An accurate inventory will also put companies in a better position to count voluntary, near-term emissions reductions toward future regulations. "There's also the motivation to be part of discussions on climate change. If regulations are going to be developed, companies want to have an input," said Loreti. "A better understanding of their own emissions will allow them to be better prepared in that debate."

"In the absence of a comprehensive policy regime, we must encourage voluntary efforts to identify and reduce greenhouse gases," said Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Climate Center. "Ensuring that such efforts are recognized in the future requires that they be well thought out and documented today. This report is a thorough guide to the choices involved in inventorying greenhouse gas emissions." Without prodding, UTC took the bull by the horns in 1996, revising its environment, health and safety policies to include conservation of natural resources as a key ingredient in its worldwide operations. The corporate rethink resulted in the creation of an energy and water baseline in 1997 for 229 of the company's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sites.

The company then set a goal to reduce energy and water consumption by 25 percent as a percentage of sales. UTC uses roughly 1,500 British thermal units, or Btu, to generate each dollar of sales. The company aims to reduce this figure to 1,150 Btu per sales dollar by 2007. By lowering its energy use, UTC reduced its costs as well as its carbon dioxide emissions. Since the program was implemented three years ago, Bayer said, the company has saved nearly $30 million in energy consumption. UTC employs a variety of strategies to reduce consumption. They include lighting upgrades; more efficient motors, boilers and chillers; energy management systems and co-generation.

One facility saved $230,000 in annual energy costs simply by getting employees to turn off all computer monitors at night. The Pew report describes similar efforts by American Electric Power, Air Products, Baxter International Inc, BP Amoco, DuPont, Entergy, ICI, Niagara Mohawk, Shell International, Suncor, Sunoco and Whirlpool Corp. "This is a very rapidly developing and changing area. And a lot of guidelines are going to come about on how companies can estimate their emissions," said Loreti.

14) GM TO OFFER LOW-FUEL PICKUPS, BUSES New York Times

August 2, 2000

PONTIAC, Mich. (AP) -- In a direct response to Ford Motor Co.'s claim as the environmentally friendly automaker, General Motors Corp. said Wednesday it would offer pickups and buses that will burn up to 50 percent less fuel than current models. While GM said its trucks would use technologies like gas-electric hybrid power and engine cylinder shut-off to improve mileage, it declined to say how much mileage its truck fleet would gain. Ford said last week it would increase the fuel economy of its SUVs from an average of 18 mpg now to 23 mpg in 2005.

GM Vice Chairman Harry Pearce, saying he was ``seriously annoyed'' with Ford's claim of environmental leadership and the news coverage it generated, said GM's light trucks had 4 percent better fuel economy than Ford's fleet, and bested Ford in a model-by- model comparison. According to preliminary federal mileage figures for 2000 model year vehicles, which are weighted by sales, Ford's truck fleet had an average fuel economy of 20.8 mpg, while GM's averaged 21 mpg. ``GM will be the leader in five years, or for 15 years or 20 years,'' Pearce said. ``We have spent years achieving this leadership position. And I think it's extremely important that when we talk about fuel economy, we talk about deeds, not words.''

Pearce said that if every owner of a 2000 model year Ford light truck -- including pickups, SUVs, vans and minivans -- were driving the comparable GM vehicle, drivers would save 38 million gallons of gasoline a year, according to GM's internal calculations. A Ford spokeswoman said the company welcomed GM's announcement. ``We worked hard to determine what would benefit customers, and we're very proud of what we're working toward, '' said Ford spokeswoman Sara Tatchio. ``If GM also considers this important, we think customers benefit even more and we're all for it.''

Environmental groups applauded GM's announcement as a sign that automakers now believe consumers care about the impact their cars and trucks have on the environment. ``The good news here is that fuel economy and global warming are important to Americans,'' said Daniel Becker, the Sierra Club's director of global warming and energy programs. ``I think GM deserves real applause for making the announcement and preparing to implement it.'' GM said that it will begin building a version of its Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra full-size pickups in 2004 that are powered by a gas- electric hybrid system. The system uses an electric motor placed between a gas-powered V8 engine and the transmission, and links it to a battery pack -- stored under the rear seats in a test vehicle on display Wednesday. It will improve the fuel economy of the truck by 15 percent with the same performance of today's V8s, Pearce said.

Pearce and other GM officials declined to say how much the hybrid pickup might cost or in what volume GM would produce it. Thomas Stevens, GM's director of truck engineering, said the hybrid system would likely be bundled with options not available on other models, and any extra cost could be offset with fuel savings. Later this year, GM also will build a gas-electric hybrid system for buses used in public transportation. Pearce said by improving fuel economy on buses and other commercial vehicles, fuel consumption could be reduced far faster than by making changes to other kinds of vehicles.

He estimated that if the 13,000 buses in use in the nation's nine largest cities were converted to GM's powertrain, they would reduce their diesel fuel consumption by nearly 38 million gallons a year. The system also cuts emissions of smog-forming gasses and particulates by 50 to 90 percent. Pearce also said GM would be using cylinder shut-off systems throughout its truck lineup. The system GM calls ``displacement on demand'' cuts off fuel to half of a V8's cylinders while the vehicle is at cruising speed. The mileage of light trucks -- pickups, vans, minivans and SUVs -- sold in the United States has changed little since the early 1980s, and still hovers just above the federal requirement of 20.7 mpg.

Jason Mark, transportation co-director for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said GM's move showed that fuel economy could become a competitive point for automakers. ``All these technologies have been on the table for years,'' he said. ``What's new is that consumers care about fuel economy and as corporations they need to compete on that ground.''

See also: Washington Post: http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25894-2000Aug2.html

Financial Times: http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NYJQAFBC&liv e=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ3XDHE90C&tagid=ZZZJIU2RA0C

GM, EXXON ADVANCE FUEL-CELL TECHNOLOGY New York Times

10 August

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N) said on Thursday they have improved technology to power fuel cells with gasoline, in a development that may result in a cleaner alternative to internal combustion engines in automobiles. The automaker and oil company have created a highly efficient gasoline fuel processor that uses gasoline to create hydrogen to run a fuel cell, Larry Burns, vice president of GM research and development, said at a University of Michigan automotive conference here. GM plans to have a demonstration vehicle using the technology within the next 18 months.

The fuel cell with a gasoline processor has the potential to be twice as efficient as current engines, but emit half the carbon dioxide and significantly less nitrogen oxide, said William Innes, president of Exxon Mobil Research and Engineering. Consumers would be able to fuel the vehicles the same way they do with their current cars and trucks at gasoline stations, making it a much more attractive future technology, the companies said.

The widespread use of other alternative fuels, such as propane, methane and ethanol, have always suffered because of the lack of infrastructure -- filling stations to provide the fuels. The gasoline-fuel cell vehicle could serve as a temporary measure until pure hydrogen as a fuel becomes economically feasible and widely available, the companies said.

See also- MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/news/444447.asp

FOSTERS BEER COMMITS TO DROP GREENHOUSE GAS REFRIGERANTS ENS

12 August Internet: http://ens.lycos.com/ens/aug2000/2000L-08-11-12.html

SYDNEY, Australia, August 11, 2000 (ENS) - Greenpeace has persuaded a second Olympic sponsor to phase out greenhouse gas polluting hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) from its refrigeration units. Foster's is part of the Carlton and United Breweries Ltd., one of the largest brewing companies in the world representing 50 brands. Foster's Brewing Company announced Thursday that it will no longer purchase HFC equipment. But the company, whose beers are sold in 121 countries, will use 200 HFC coolers at this September's Olympic Games. In June, also under pressure from Greenpeace, Coca Cola announced it would abandon HFCs from its refrigeration policy. HFCs have been used for refrigeration in place of ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) since CFCs were banned by international agreement. Because HFCs contain no chlorine, they do not contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion, but scientists warn that this class of of heat trapping compounds contributes to global warming.

HFCs are one of the six categories of greenhouse gases linked with global warming that are limited by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an addition to the United Nations climate change treaty. This agreement has been signed but not yet ratified by the 39 industrialized nations it governs. According to Greenpeace figures, on average over 20 years, one ton of HFCs cause 3,300 times more climate change destruction than one ton of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.

Sydney won the bid for the 2000 Olympics on the grounds that it would emphasize environmental responsibility, and it has called the 2000 Olympics the Green Games. Central to that commitment were the Olympic Coordination Authority's Environmental Guidelines, which stated "Sydney should not use chemical refrigerants CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs."

Greenpeace Olympics campaigner Rupert Posner said that despite Foster's plans to use HFC coolers at the Games, the company's decision is an important step. "It ensures the legacy of Sydney 2000 will continue on globally," said Posner. "The move is worth celebrating with a cold Foster's. "The next round is on other companies, particularly Olympic sponsors and partners, to follow Foster's lead and phase out HFCs," said Posner. New natural refrigeration systems, partly developed by Greenpeace and known as Greenfreeze, are commercially available and can be used instead of HFCs.

Greenfreeze uses a mixture of propane (R290) and isobutane (R60Oa), or isobutane as a pure gas, for the refrigerant, and cyclopentane for blowing the insulation foam. While hydrocarbons are flammable, the content of propane or butane in a domestic Greenfreeze refrigerator is small - just about equal to the contents of two cigarette lighters, Greenpeace says. There is a wide range of commercially available, cost effective Greenfreeze systems available for supermarkets, pubs, restaurants, offices, ice cream and drinks chillers, freezer cabinets and air conditioning.

In a separate statement made in Amsterdam yesterday, Greenpeace announced it was forming a new division to spur the creation of "green" technologies such as Greenfreeze. "The objective of the unit is to influence the development of technology towards sustainable solutions and promote their entry into the market," Greenpeace executive director Thilo Bode said in the statement.

GREENPEACE GOES FOR NEW APPROACH BCC News 10 August, 2000 Internet: http://news6.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid%5F874000/874067.stm

Greenpeace, for years a byword for head-on confrontation with suspected environmental wrongdoers, is throwing its resources into trying instead to find some answers. It is to set up a unit to search for environmental solutions and innovations "to assist in the development of sustainable technologies". But the organisation insists that the new unit will simply "extend" an area of work that began almost a decade ago. And it says that direct action will remain "the core part" of its campaigning. The announcement was made by the executive director of Greenpeace International, Dr Thilo Bode, at a news conference launching its annual report.

Supporter base Dr Bode said: "Our recent work devising the environmental guidelines for the Sydney 2000 Olympics makes it clear solutions form a key part in our campaigning. "We have encouraged, but also directly challenged and protested to make sure its sponsors meet the 'green' standards they agreed. "Persuading one of the leading Olympic sponsors, Coca-Cola, to replace their ozone-depleting and global warming refrigerants with Greenfreeze technology in their worldwide operations shows the impact Greenpeace can have in this area." Greenfreeze, developed by Greenpeace, uses hydrocarbon gases like propane, not the HCFCs and HFCs developed to replace ozone-damaging CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons). The replacements contribute to climate change. Dr Bode said Greenpeace's net income - total income less fundraising expenditure - had risen in 1999 for the fifth year in succession, to 96.4 million Euros, 8% up on 1998.

The report also shows that the organisation's supporters grew by 100,000 from 1998, to 2.5m. This is the first rise recorded for some years, and follows a decline from 3m supporters in 1995 to 2.4m in 1998. Greenpeace says the decline was "largely due to changes in the methods of calculating the supporter base which were introduced in 1996".

Solutions and innovations unit The report details work in the main areas of Greenpeace's concerns - climate change, the world's oceans, its forests, toxic substances, nuclear power, and genetic engineering. The solutions and innovations unit is to be headed by Harry Lehmann, a system analyst and physicist who was formerly director of the Wuppertal Institute in Germany. Mr Lehmann told BBC News Online: "We have a lot of ideas for the new unit coming in from the campaigns. "We may do more work on the Greenfreeze technology, and we'll probably be looking at desalination, sustainable transport systems, and renewable energy, for a start. Our direct budget is 400,000 Euros, and there'll be other associated costs. "I'm not a Greenpeace member, though I expect I'll join now. I see the unit as a way of building on the success that Greenpeace has achieved with its direct action over the years."

Products and profits The annual report spells out Greenpeace's belief that there must be a change in the way both governments and businesses use science and technology. Governments, says Greenpeace, cannot assume that science is an independent and objective process when so much funding for research is generated by industries "seeking to turn knowledge into products and profits". "Nor can industry usurp the necessary democratic discussions about what scientific and technological developments are desirable, and what are not." Greenpeace may well attract support for its argument that scientific policy-making should be more democratic. But its increasingly vociferous critics argue that the organisation's own record means it has little science to contribute.

COURT ORDER KEEPS GREENPEACE OFF BP PROPERTY Fox Marketwire August 10, 2000 Internet: http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0810/f_rt_0810_40.sml

ANCHORAGE, - A U.S. District Court judge issued a restraining order prohibiting Greenpeace activists from trespassing on energy giant BP Amoco Plc's oil exploration property, days after the environmental activist group boarded a BP barge in the Arctic to protest oil drilling. U.S. District Court Judge Russel Holland in Anchorage Wednesday granted BP's request for a temporary restraining order against Greenpeace activists, requiring them to keep 200 yards from BP's Northstar oil project, BP and Greenpeace officials said Thursday. Five Greenpeace activists and two photographers were arrested Tuesday and charged with criminal trespass after they occupied a 420-foot (130 meter) unmanned barge that was being towed to the Arctic oil field to serve as living quarters for workers.

They were protesting the company's Alaska offshore oil development, arguing it will further global warming.

The barge-boarding was the latest in a series of high-profile Greenpeace events in Arctic Alaska. This spring, activists spent about eight weeks camped out on ice near Northstar as part of the protest campaign. "Clearly the laws in place against trespassing weren't enough to prevent Greenpeace and its members from engaging in activities that put our workers, the activists and law enforcement officers at risk,'' BP Alaska spokesman Ronnie Chappell said.

The barge diverted from its route to stop in Alaska's northernmost town, Barrow, where law enforcement officers removed the protesters and arrested them. It then set sail for its original destination, the Northstar oil project on megafield Prudhoe Bay. Greenpeace argues the Northstar Project exacerbates global warming, which threatens the Arctic ecosystem and wildlife, and sets the stage for further offshore oil expansion.

"BP has run to court rather than face up to its role fueling global warming,'' Greenpeace spokeswoman Melanie Duchin said. The restraining order expires on Aug. 19, unless the court decides to extend it, according to court documents. Northstar extends up to six miles (10 km) offshore and has expected crude oil production of 176 million barrels, with initial production due in late 2001. It is slated to be Alaska's first producing field on the federally controlled outer continental shelf.

ARCTIC TEMPERATURES WARMEST IN PAST FOUR CENTURIES, STUDY SAYS Science Daily 10 August Internet: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/08/000810071622.htm

Arctic temperatures in the late 20th century, which were the warmest in four centuries, have been accompanied by a variety of other environmental changes, according to a review paper published in mid-July by a group of the world's leading Arctic researchers. The changes appear to be at least partly a result of human activity, said University of Colorado at Boulder Research Associate Mark Serreze, the paper's principal author. Serreze and nine co-authors reviewed a series of more than 100 separate studies targeting a variety of components of Arctic change over decades and centuries.

"We had the pieces of the puzzle gathered, and we synthesized them to give us the best picture of what is going on right now in the Arctic," said Serreze, a researcher at the CU-based National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC. Funded by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs and Division of Atmospheric Sciences, the new study looked at air temperature measurements, atmospheric circulation observations, precipitation data, snow cover and snow depth records. The study also included sea ice measurements, ocean structure data, permafrost temperature observations, glacier mass balances, plant growth observations and carbon flux measurements, said Serreze.

The new paper was published in the Dutch journal, Climate Change. Four of the paper's authors, including Serreze, Mark Dyurgerov, Tingjun Zhang and Roger Barry, are from CU-Boulder. Serreze, Zhang and Barry are affiliated with the NSIDC -- part of the CU-based Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences - while Dyurgerov is a research associate at CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. Other authors include John Walsh of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Terry Chapin, Thomas Osterkamp and Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Walter Oechel of San Diego State University and Jamie Morison of the University of Washington.

In some of the northernmost regions of the world, temperatures have warmed alarmingly in a very short period, according to climate data, said Serreze. Parts of Alaska and northern Eurasia, for example, have warmed by nearly 11 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter months over the past 30 years. "We have climate evidence from the past four centuries gleaned from ice cores, lake cores and tree rings that don't show nearly as dramatic warming, putting the modern record into context," he said.

Another issue troubling arctic scientists is the degradation of climate data from the Arctic region, including closures of some hydrometeorological stations and reductions of other climate networks in Canada and Russia, said Serreze. Russia, which had continuously maintained up to three drifting ice stations as part of the North Pole Drifting Program that took weather readings, atmospheric soundings, solar radiation and snow condition data since 1950, was terminated in 1991.

Canada also is cutting back on the amount of data gathered from its high-latitude climate stations by going to automated systems. "We may be able to take up some of the slack by recording similar data with satellites, but we are losing the value of long-term data continuity," Serreze said. "The compilation of research results presented in this paper make it undeniable that a major warming is affecting the Arctic environment," said Michael T. Ledbetter, NSF's Arctic System Science Program Director, Office of Polar Programs. "Whether or not the changes are due to global climate change, as many suspect, the Arctic is serving as an excellent testbed for observing and predicting environmental effects of global warming."

Serreze currently serves on an NSF steering committee for a proposed program known as the Study of Environmental Arctic Change, or SEARCH, to try to better understand the nature and causes of recent change and to halt the data degradation. SEARCH would combine the work of NSF and other federal agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as university researchers, to focus additional effort on Arctic climate change. "Our study validates climate-model results that predict the Arctic will be among the first regions on Earth to respond to a global warming trend," said Serreze. "Given what we are seeing, continued monitoring of this region is crucial."

FALLING SEA LEVEL UPSETS THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING Daily Telegraph 6 August Internet: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=a2NesXRL&atmo=ooooo0Qb &pg=/et/00/8/6/wsea06.html

THE 11,000 inhabitants of a tiny Pacific country that was predicted to vanish under water because of the effects of global warming have been given a reprieve because sea levels have begun to fall. In the early 1990s, scientists forecast that the coral atoll of nine islands - which is only 12ft above sea level at its highest point - would vanish within decades because the sea was rising by up to 1.5in a year. However, a new study has found that sea levels have since fallen by nearly 2.5in and experts at Tuvalu's Meteorological Service in Funafuti, the islands' administrative centre, said this meant they would survive for another 100 years.

They said similar sea level falls had been recorded in Nauru and the Solomon Islands, which were also considered to be under threat. The release of the data from Tuvalu, formerly part of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, will renew scientific debate about climate change and its impact on ocean levels. The island's scientists admitted they were surprised and "a little embarrassed" by the change, which they blame on unusual weather conditions caused by El Niño in 1997.

Hilia Vavae, the Metereological Service's director, said: "This is certainly a bit of a shock for us because we have been experiencing the effect of rising oceans for a long time." Although their country has been saved from imminent engulfment, not all islanders are happy about the change in Tuvalu's fortunes. Residents who once worried about their homes being flooded are now complaining that the lower tides are disrupting their fishing expeditions, making it difficult to moor their boats and navigate low-lying reefs.

However, scientists both on and off the island believe such concerns will be short term because the sea level falls are coming to an end and the oceans will soon resume their inexorable rise. The Tuvalu government, a vocal critic of the industrialised world at environmental conferences in Tokyo and Rio de Janeiro, has said that the result of its research is a "blip" and it is expected to make climate change a major issue when it joins the United Nations next month. Low-lying coral islands such as Tuvalu and the Maldives are among the countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels. Most of the world's leading scientists agree that the earth is warming up, caused by carbon dioxide emissions from petrol and the burning of coal.

Last month a study by Nasa, the US space agency, found that sea levels were being pushed up by the addition of 50 billion tons of water a year from Greenland's melting ice sheet. Professor Patrick Nunn, head of geography at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji and an expert on island formation, said last week that the figures from Tuvalu, Papua New Guinea and the Solomons were based on inadequate research.

He said

"It is a nonsense to try to make predictions about climate change from a data base of only seven years. You need data over a minimum period of at least 30 years. A lot of these sea gauges have been slowly falling over the last five years but that is a short-term trend. Island countries such as Kiribati and Tuvalu remain incredibly vulnerable to sea change. These low-lying islands are between 2,000 and 3,000 years old. They only formed because sea levels fell, allowing a build up of sand and gravel. Now it could go the other way."

Ms Vavae is also pessimistic about the future of her country, which last year signed a £34 million deal to license its domain name - tv.com - to an American internet company. She said: "There is no doubt about the impact of climate change on Tuvalu. We already have difficulty planting traditional crops. We've seen more frequent tropical cyclones, more severe droughts and alarming sea level heights during spring tides. "We are still facing the daunting prospect of being one of the first countries to be submerged by sea-level rises related to climate change."

DEEP SEA OFFERS CLUE TO GLOBAL WARMING Chicago Tribune August 3, 2000 Internet: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/article/0%2C2669%2CSAV-000803 0428%2CFF.html

Analyzing sediments extracted from the cold, unfriendly depths of the Pacific Ocean, a Northern Illinois University researcher has discovered that a vast undersea river dramatically affects the process by which aquatic life absorbs the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the air. The cycling of carbon dioxide between the oceans and the atmosphere is a complex process that scientists call one of the biggest puzzles facing the science of earth systems. And because carbon dioxide affects global warming, understanding those cycles is critical to researchers trying to predict the effects of industrialization on the environment. In Thursday's edition of the scientific journal Nature, NIU environmental scientist Paul Loubere provides evidence that a deep current originating in the chilly waters near the South Pole has a far-reaching impact thousands of miles away in the tropics, where microorganisms convert carbon dioxide into organic matter.

Originally discovered about 50 years ago, the equatorial undercurrent carries precious nutrients to the eastern equatorial Pacific, the region responsible for the world's greatest output of carbon dioxide from oceans to the atmosphere. "It is almost as if a finger from the Antarctic reaches to the tropics and influences things there," Loubere said. The biological absorption of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton and other marine life at the equator, which convert it into sugars and other molecules during photosynthesis, serves to balance a physical process that Loubere calls the "pop-can effect."

Just as a cold soda tends to be fizzier than warm soda, so do cold ocean waters contain more dissolved gases than warm water. Carbon dioxide therefore tends to be taken up by the ocean toward the poles and released near the equator. "High latitudes are where the world breathes in, and the tropics are where the world breathes out," said Loubere. Although most scientists agree that marine life plays a role in the cycling of carbon dioxide, the forces affecting the productivity of the organisms remain mysterious. The ability of phytoplankton to incorporate carbon dioxide depends in part on the availability of nutrients such as iron, nitrate and phosphate. Previously scientists thought that trade winds were a major source of such nutrients, blowing iron-rich dust from South America over the tropics.

Loubere's research, however, indicates that the equatorial undercurrent is a major player in the "feeding" of plankton. He discovered this by studying single-celled, bottom-dwelling microorganisms known as foraminifera, or forams for short. Because forams feed on dead plankton and other debris that drifts to the ocean floor, the traces they leave behind reflect the quality of life in the warmer, well-lit waters above. As generations of forams live, die and accumulate in the sediment of the sea bed, layers of their tiny shells accumulate. The shells' shapes range from beams to spheres to spirals and their colors vary from clear to iridescent white.

"They are wonderfully diverse in their forms," said Loubere. But the shells aren't just pretty. Over the years, studies of forams have provided geologists and oceanographers with a veritable treasure trove of data. "They have unraveled most of the history of the earth with those damn forams," said Dick Barber, Duke University's chair of biological oceanography. After carefully cataloging forams in the layers of sediment from the eastern equatorial Pacific, Loubere reconstructed a record of the marine life activity over the past 130,000 years. "We see real changes in the species and their abundances based on the food that is falling from above," he said. Loubere's work is likely to be of special interest to researchers studying the impact of industrialization on global warming. "We have a really tough job of predicting the future, so we better do everything we can to understand the past," said Barber.

"We are trying to understand that background noise, or variability, so that mechanisms that are dominant in causing changes can be incorporated into the models for global warming," said paleooceanographer Alan Mix from Oregon State University.

See also- Detroit News: http://detnews.com/2000/religion/0008/04/08020003.htm

METEOROLOGY COMMISSIONER PREDICTS SEVERE DROUGHT New Vision (Kampala) August 12, 2000 Internet: http://www.africanews.org/east/uganda/stories/20000812/20000812_feat16.html

Kampala - The Commissioner for Meteorology, Mr. Bwango Apuuli, has warned of severe droughts in Uganda and East Africa during this season. Appearing before the parliamentary committee on natural resources with ministers, Baguma Isoke for lands and Kezimbira Miyingo for environment yesterday, Bwango said communities should be prepared to adapt to the new weather phenomena. He said the global atmospheric temperature had increased due to increase in greenhouse gases. He said, "If significant reduction in greenhouse gases is not done, the average global temperature is predicted to raise by three degrees centigrade by the year 2001."

The committee, chaired by Aston Kajara (Mwenge South), had asked Bwango to explain the uncoordinated weather forecasts, persistent drought in the country and activities undertaken by his department. Bwango advised the Government to encourage rainwater harvesting, supplementary irrigation, energy conservation practices and proper management of livestock waste to reduce production of methane, which affects the radiation process in the air.

He also said the extreme weather events such as floods and droughts will increase in their frequency and intensity because of global warming. "Global warming, associated with periodic warming of the neighbouring oceans, has resulted in changes in the strength and characteristics of the monsoon winds that bring moisture into Uganda," he added. He said eastern Africa will have severe droughts, while southern Africa will face floods. In 1997/98, Uganda had floods as a result el nino, a result of a warmer northwestern Indian Ocean.

SCIENTISTS EXPECT MORE MAJOR HURRICANES IN THE COMING YEARS ABC News 13 August Internet: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/hurricanes000812.html

Aug. 13 -With the peak of hurricane season starting next week, hurricane specialists are warning there could be as many as three major hurricanes between now and the end of November. And the gloomy forecasts don't stop there. The Atlantic coasts of the United States, Caribbean and Central America may face the increased threat of major hurricanes for another 20 or 30 years. "If history is to be our guide, what we saw in the middle part of the twentieth century is analogous to what we can expect in the first couple decades of this century," says Dr. Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Fla.

In the 1940s to late 1960s the country experienced a steady increase in hurricane activity. For about 25 years the Atlantic Coast averaged 3 major hurricanes a year. By 1970, hurricane activity had tapered off to average little more than one major hurricane each year, and until 1995 hurricane activity remained quiet.

Warmer Oceans Scientists say Atlantic Ocean temperatures are warmer now than in the 1970s and 1980s. Hurricane researchers are now certain that water temperature is one of the main contributors to hurricane conditions (the ocean must be at least 80 degrees to sustain a hurricane). Steady winds blowing in the same direction, generally west, and changes in air pressure also work together to nurture a budding hurricane.

"Some research shows that because the oceans are warmer, this current period of activity could include more major hurricanes," which could also mean more multi-billion dollar cleanup projects in the wake of the storms, Landsea says. Although scientists aren't certain what causes the decades rise and fall in hurricane activity, specialists are focusing on long-term changes in air pressure patterns and warm and cold ocean currents in the North Atlantic for possible answers.Changing air pressure patterns between Iceland and the Azores Islands, several hundred miles off the coast of Portugal, may boost high winds in the Atlantic every two or three decades, says James Elsner, professor of geography and a hurricane specialist at Florida State University. The high winds literally blow the top off budding hurricanes and inhibit hurricane activity.

However, in recent years the tendency toward high winds in the North Atlantic has diminished- one possible explanation for increased hurricane activity, says Elsner.

Even Quiet Years Pose Threat As scientists point out, however, measuring hurricanes by quantity does not always reflect the amount of damage a hurricane season brings. In 1995, meteorologists documented a dramatic increase in big storms with 19 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Even with so much activity, the only major hurricane to hit land was Hurricane Opal, which hit Northwest Florida and Alabama and caused about $3 billion in damage. "Just because you have a busy year doesn't mean a major hurricane will reach land. Sometimes in a quiet year, the one big hurricane comes ashore and is devastating - as Andrew was in 1992," says Elsner. Andrew, the season's only major hurricane, was the third most-intense hurricane ever recorded, and it required the most expensive storm cleanup in history: $25 billion.

Nasty Wake-Up Call "Andrew was the wake-up call. Even though it was a quiet year, it reminded people exactly what a hurricane could do," says Dr. Roger Pielke, a researcher of societal impacts of hurricanes at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. A lull in hurricane activity during the 1970s and 1980s led many government officials and the general public to forget about hurricanes, he says. In those two decades the populations of many coastal areas doubled and even tripled as development flourished with little thought of the giant storms.

In Miami alone, the population jumped 600 percent from 1950 to 1992, he says. Pielke estimates the U.S. government spends an average of $5 billion a year on hurricane relief - a high price tag that could be lowered with a few common sense measures, he says. From his research on Andrew and other devastating hurricanes, Pielke says better government planning for hurricanes and enforcement of strict building codes are two of the most effective tools society can use to reduce the costs of major storms. For example, when Andrew hit Florida the federal, state and local governments had almost no money set aside to cover a major natural disaster and were forced to borrow for the cleanup.

Officials estimated that close to 20 percent of the cleanup costs could have been avoided if Miami's storm-conscious building codes had been properly enforced. "We need to anticipate hurricane activity. With coastal populations so much bigger now, the costs of above average hurricane activity will only grow," says Pielke.

Just the Beginning ... Each year about 80 major disturbances, usually clusters of thunder storms, move off the West Coast of Africa. But only about half of them gather enough force to become tropical storms and be granted an official name pre-selected by the World Meteorological Organization based in Geneva, Switzerland. Once a tropical storm's winds exceed 74 mph, it's classified as a hurricane. But not until winds exceed 110 mph is it labeled a major hurricane. The Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, where most U.S. hurricanes come from, average nine tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes each year. If this year's hurricane season comes close to forecasters' expectations, 2000 will be the third straight year of increased hurricane activity, and a sign of things to come. Even though 1997 saw few Atlantic storms, the Atlantic Coast has seen more hurricane activity in the last five years than at any other time in its recorded history.

For this season, hurricane guru Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University has forecast 11 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but most of the major hurricanes tend to happen from late August to late October, Gray says. Last week, weather satellites picked up the first hurricane of the season. Alberto passed about 345 miles east of Bermuda Friday and is expected to die out over cool Northern waters and never reach land. But Alberto is only the beginning, as Landsea warns, "There's plenty more coming ...."

PRICE OF PROGRESS 'IS A LANDSCAPE LESS RESILIENT' Daily Telegraph-UK 4 August Internet: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000140326706927&rtmo=0i2xeXNq&atmo=0i2xeXNq &pg=/et/00/8/4/nhill104.html

EVIDENCE that modern agriculture is making the landscape vulnerable to global warming has emerged from a simulation of climate change at two sites in Britain. Using soil heating cables, spray nozzles and automated "umbrellas", a team from Sheffield University and CABI Bioscience at Ascot manipulated the climate for five years at the sets of plots of limestone grasslands, among the most species-rich plant communities in Europe.

The grasslands at Wytham, Oxon, were cultivated until 1982, so the ecosystem is young and typical for a landscape that has been farmed, containing a significant level of annual plants. In contrast, the grasslands of Buxton, Derbys, are centuries-old, stable sheep pastures with a different mix of species, mostly slow-growing perennials that are used to coping with few nutrients. Ken Thompson, of Sheffield, head of the team that reports the study today in the journal Science, said the effects of rainfall were far more important than temperature. The Wytham grasslands reacted more strongly to the simulated drier climate - in terms of major changes in the range of species and a large decline in plant mass - than the Buxton grasslands.

The latter were used to stress and seemed to cope better, even though the normal climate in Buxton is wetter and colder. Dr Thompson said: "They are tougher. Some have individual leaves that live for two years." When there was more summer rainfall, the Wytham grasslands grew much more rapidly, while Buxton remained almost unchanged. By disturbing the make-up of grassland ecosystems, human activity might make entire landscapes more vulnerable to climate change, Dr Thompson said: "Wytham is just one example of the kind of landscape that modern land use is creating. Humans don't make landscapes like Buxton any more."

But he added that it could be that when Buxton did eventually respond to persistent climate change - the experiment has now run for seven years - it may take much longer to recover.

See also- Discovery: http://www.discovery.com/news/briefs/20000804/en_grassland.html

MILLIONS HOMELESS IN FLOOD-HIT S. ASIA ABC News 7 August Internet: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/DailyNews/floods000807.html

PATNA, India, Aug. 7 - Floods caused by a monsoon deluge have made millions of people homeless and left hundreds dead or missing in India, Bangladesh and Bhutan. Figures provided by authorities in the three countries today showed that more than 160 people were known to have died. Indian officials said swollen rivers had started receding after two weeks of heavy rain, but the death toll could rise as more scattered rain is forecast. "We're still flying in the dark as far as the number of people homeless are concerned, but I think you're talking over two million," said Patrick Fuller, South Asia spokesman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies.

India's armed forces stepped up operations in the north and east, joining hard-pressed local authorities with helicopters and motorboats to distribute provisions, including medicine and polythene sheeting, across vast lakes of water. In India's Bihar state, the government said 20 people had died, one million had been displaced, 1,015 villages inundated, 4,000 houses destroyed and road and rail links washed away. According to India's Central Water Commission the Kamlabalan, Kosi, Mahananada and Adhwara group of rivers, all originating in Nepal, were flowing above danger levels and the Ganges and Bagmati rivers were also dangerously high.

Livestock Concerns Officials said thousands of marooned villagers in Bihar, one of India's poorest states, had refused to move to relief camps, fearing their farm animals and belongings would be looted. "For villagers, leaving an animal behind is like leaving a child behind," Atiish Chandra, administrator of flood-ravaged Sitamarhi district in Bihar, told Reuters by telephone. He said there were some reports of looting in remote areas. The district has 12 rivers, many of which flood the area in May every year.

"This year nothing happened in May and suddenly in August we get the worst flood ever," he said, adding that the rivers had started receding today. Bihar officials were unprepared. "We have enough boats to take people across rivers if bridges are washed away, but if entire villages are under four feet of water, what do we do?" Chandra added. Officials in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh said 115 people had died in floods in the mountain province so far, but the waters were now receding.

Some Floodwaters Receding "The floodwaters are no longer threatening us. It is the rescue and relief operations which are posing a great challenge before us. The water in Sutlej has started to recede now," Director- General of Police A.K. Puri said. In the northeastern state of Assam, where 18 deaths have been reported so far, officials said the water level of most rivers had started receding. "More than 1.6 million people have been rendered homeless due to the floods and have sought shelter in relief centers and highlands," said Manoj Deb, Assam's public relations director.

The Indian army and air force continued with rescue and relief operations in tea and oil-rich Assam state. "Soldiers and air force helicopters have rescued over 5,000 marooned people from different areas of the state since Friday and MI18 helicopters have dropped several tons of food," regional defense spokesman, R.K. Bhattacharya, said. The flood-affected areas have been gripped by diseases including encephalitis and gastroenteritis. About 400,000 people were marooned in Bangladesh as swollen rivers swept down from Indian hills across the border, and at least eight were reported killed. Bangladesh and India share more than 50 rivers.

Hundreds of people were displaced in the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan. The state-run Kuensel newspaper said more than 40 people were missing after the Barsa river, diverted by a landslide, slammed into the industrial town of Pasakha.

FLOODS DEVASTATE RUSSIA'S FAR EAST CNN August 4, 2000 Internet: http://europe.cnn.com/2000/WEATHER/08/04/russia.floods.reut/index.html

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (Reuters) -- Rivers swollen by a typhoon off Russia's Pacific coast cascaded through hundreds of villages, sending residents scrambling onto roofs and cutting power and telephone lines, reports from the area said on Friday. Officials in Russia's far eastern Maritime region said at least 2,000 homes had been inundated and hundreds of families evacuated. Hundreds of kilometers (miles) of roads were washed out, dozens of bridges damaged and power stations put out of action. More than 2,000 paratroops and other servicemen had been drafted in to distribute food or oversee orderly departures.

Russian television showed water surging past the first floor (U.S. second) floor of wooden houses, with entire families shifting possessions onto roofs. Rowboats, some equipped with small motors, navigated through village streets. "We spent the first night on the roof," one woman carrying a small child told NTV television. "No one would stop to take us to safety. One man came by in a small boat but wouldn't help." Television reports said sunny weather had replaced several days of storms in which the equivalent of three months of rain had fallen. But they said a new typhoon could hit the region.

Damage in the area was estimated at up to 200 million roubles ($7 million). Rising waters were threatening the main highway linking the Pacific port of Vladivostok and the region's largest city of Khabarovsk, on the Chinese border. Pictures earlier this week showed cars making their way through the streets of Vladivostok with water nearly up to their windows.

STORM CAUSES FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST ABC News 13 August Internet: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/flooding000812.html

SPARTA, NJ., Aug. 13 - As much as a foot of rain fell in parts of the Northeast on Saturday, turning creeks into rivers, flooding roads and homes and collapsing at least two bridges in northern New Jersey. Flash flood watches were posted for much of New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New York and Connecticut, the National Weather Service said. A state of emergency was declared in Sparta, where eight to 10 inches of rain fell in just a few hours. Residents had to be evacuated from homes there and in nearby Ogdensburg and Lake Hopatcong, and police were scrambling to answer calls about people stranded on submerged cars and in homes in flooded neighborhoods.

Bridges Collapse Bridges in Jefferson Township and in Ogdensburg collapsed, sending cars into the water, but officials said there were no injuries. The National Guard sent trucks and troops to help emergency crews reach flooded neighborhoods. Mt. Arlington fire officials said their area's problems started around 10 a.m. when a body of water that feeds into Lake Hopatcong overflowed. About 50 homes had to be evacuated by boat where waters had risen above mailboxes in the streets. At least 10,000 customers lost power across the region, officials said.

Dramatic Rescue In Narrowsburg, N.Y., the 15-member volunteer fire department performed its first water rescue, reaching a woman whose house was cut off by rising waters. "A woman was apparently struck by lightning," said Assistant Chief Michael Hector. "The road going to her house was flooded over so we had to take a small rescue boat over a swollen creek ... carry her out on a backboard, and bring her back on the boat to the ambulance." The creek is usually so small it doesn't even have a name, he said. The National Weather Service said as much as six inches of rain fell in surrounding Sullivan County, about 60 miles northwest of New York City. Other fire departments in the area were busy barricading roads closed by flooding and mudslides.

On Max Yasgur's farm, of Woodstock fame, car after car headed to a political rally dubbed "Greenstock" got bogged down in the thick mud Saturday. A police car and three ambulance were caught in flash flooding in Stratford, Conn., where 8 inches of rain fell.

The 'Freakish Storm' "It was a freakish storm," said Stratford Town Manager Mark Barnhart said. "The force of the water was quite awesome. I can't describe it. You have it picking up large objects. An ambulance was swept sideways by the current." Homeowners and business-owners bailed floodwater from their homes and stores Saturday afternoon, while officials investigated whether a recently-installed pump system designed to prevent flooding had done its job. The owners of Natalie's Antiques on Main Street said they weren't sure if insurance would cover the tens of thousands of dollars in damage done by several feet of water in their shop. "This is all I've worked for," owner Natalie Fisher said. "This is my retirement money."

BRAZILIAN TOWNS 'IN DESPERATE SITUATION' AFTER FLOODING, MUDSLIDES CNN August 3, 2000 Internet: http://europe.cnn.com/2000/WEATHER/08/03/brazil.mudslides/index.html

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil -- The sun came out Thursday in Brazil's flood-ravaged northeast, but weary residents remained holed up in shelters as forecasters called for another downpour later in the day. Five days of storms and mudslides have killed 56 people and driven nearly 145,000 from their homes in the impoverished Alagoas and Pernambuco states, forcing them to seek shelter in schools, churches and public buildings. "The sun is shining brightly and the waters are beginning to subside," Soraya Alves Leite, a spokeswoman for the Alagoas state government said by phone from the state capital of Maceio, 1,900 kilometers (1,180 miles) northeast of Sao Paulo.

She said floods and mudslides killed 36 people in Alagoas and forced civil defense crews to evacuate more than 90,000. Most of the deaths came with mudslides that swept through hillside shantytowns, she said. Another 20 residents were killed in neighboring Pernambuco. Several cities and towns remain "in a desperate situation for they remain completely isolated and without drinking water or electric energy," she added. "The situation is still very critical because we have all of these thousands of homeless, and with more rains on the way they can't go home," said Liara Nogueira, a spokeswoman for the Alagoas governor.

Officials say the rain has caused the region's worst flooding in 25 years, submerging entire towns and forcing residents to camp in makeshift shelters in schools, hospitals and gymnasiums. "They badly need food and medicine," Nogueira said. "Many towns can only be reached by helicopter." Globo TV showed entire towns partly submerged as residents in small wooden boats tried to salvage belongings. Other images showed soldiers rescuing people and distributing supplies to the homeless.

Troops have been sent in after a state of emergency or high alert has been declared in more than 40 cities and towns. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso flew to the region Wednesday to assess damage and oversee rescue efforts. "There is no doubt that we have to help ... that it will be a wartime effort," Cardoso told residents, according to officials. Coastal states in the northeast often experience floods during a rainy season that lasts from April to August, but this year's heavy rains have been particularly devastating. Roads, bridges and thousands of homes have been destroyed, causing millions of dollars in damage.

UN SAYS IRAN FACES CRITICAL SITUATION FROM DROUGHT CNN August 4, 2000 Internet: http://europe.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/08/03/weather.iran.reut/index.html

TEHRAN (Reuters) -- Iran's worst drought in 30 years has inflicted severe damage on the country's agriculture and livestock and threatens to displace millions of people, the United Nations said Thursday. According to a report published by a U.N. fact-finding mission, two years of consecutive drought have affected 18 of Iran's 28 provinces and more than half of the country's 60 million people. "The enormous scope of the disaster is overwhelming the Iranian government's resources, already stretched to the limit," it said.

"The overall drought situation is likely to worsen in the months to come, as summer temperatures continue to rise and rain is not expected until November." The disaster has placed an extreme strain on water resources, livestock and agriculture, leading to greater hardship and human suffering, the report added. The mission, representing several U.N. agencies, recently visited drought-hit regions, mainly in southern and eastern Iran, to assess the situation and identify emergency needs.

"We are trying to develop a framework with the government to deal with the chronic situation on a medium and long-term basis," said Gamal Ahmed, representative in Iran of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). "The findings show acute problems in the supply of drinking water and substantial damage to agriculture and livestock," he told Reuters. He said a full report would be submitted to the donor community, listing steps to be taken to mitigate the effects of future droughts and supplement government efforts.

Kaiumars Khosh-Chashm, representing the World Health Organization (WHO) and a member of the U.N. team, said, "The situation is changing fast toward critical, even if it rains in November. The government has done its best from its own resources, or we would have had a disaster on our hands." The losses from the drought, estimated by officials as several billion dollars, far outweigh emergency funds available to help the victims. Tehran has appealed for international aid. The U.N. report said the drought had dried up lakes and other reservoirs, disrupting water flow in 70 percent of rural areas.

It also issued warnings of contamination and health hazards as the populations in drought-hit regions grow more dependent on mobile and stationary water tankers. On the agriculture front, the drought has destroyed 2.8 million tons of wheat crops and 280,000 tons of barley, in addition to the loss of stubble used for animal feed. Iran has been forced to import an additional 300,000 tons of barley this year because of the drought. An estimated 800,000 animals have died of malnutrition and disease and more face starvation or death from lack of water. "The drought has also severely impacted the number and productivity of commonly held livestock. Breeding losses will be felt for years to come," the report said.

It said water shortages could provoke over 60 percent of the population in rural areas to migrate to overpopulated cities, which themselves are short of water. The drought, which embraces the entire region, could also trigger new flocks of refugees into Iran from neighboring Afghanistan, the report said.

DROUGHT BRINGS WILDLIFE INTO CONFLICT WITH RESIDENTS Panafrican News Agency August 7, 2000 Internet: http://www.africanews.org/environ/stories/20000807/20000807_feat12.html

NAIROBI, Kenya (PANA) - A dangerous conflict for scarce resources in emerging between wildlife and human beings, as severe drought blankets Kenya's range areas like a plague. While the Kenya Wildlife Service or KWS has tried its best to keep the animals within the confines of national parks, thirsty and famished elephants, zebras, buffaloes and monkeys are breaking the fences to stray into farms in search of water and food. This has angered peasants, who are now threatening to kill the animals, should KWS fail to keep them off farms where they are ravaging the drought surviving crops. One of the most devastating incidents occurred last week when seven elephants strayed from the Mau forest and destroyed 10 acres of land planted with maize and millet in Embomas location, Buret District, on the western escarpment of Rift Valley.

According to the area's local leader, John Ruto, the mammals also damaged tea farms belonging to Buret County Council and Embomas Nyayo tea zones. The area's angry residents have asked the Kenya Wildlife Services to come to their rescue immediately, or else they would attack the rogue beasts using poisonous arrows. Apart from elephants, more than 200 buffaloes invaded and destroyed maize and vegetable farms in Maela, Naivasha - on the eastern escarpment of the Rift Valley. Elephants also savaged farms in Kinango division, 45 miles south of the port town of Mombasa in late July. Six civic leaders gave the Kenya Wildlife Services 30 days to contain the jumbo menace.

Apart from destroying crops and causing panic and fear among residents, the jumbos have also prevented many children in the area to stop going to school. The jumbos, said to be those relocated to Tsavo from Shimba Hills by the KWS in 1999, have terrorised residents of Kakoneni near Mazeras relentlessly for four weeks. They recently invaded Viogato village of Kakoneni location where they terrorised residents for a whole night and killed a cow. The animals have also destroyed a large area of young maize plantation and residents have questioned the inertia of local KWS personnel and their inability to confine the animals to Tsavo National Park. Addressing a fundraising meeting at Mwavumvo secondary school on July, several councillors declared their intention to mobilise peasants so as to "deal with the animals mercilessly" if KWS does not take action. "At the expiry of this notice, we are going to deal with animals ourselves because the KWS have neglected and refused to heed the outcry of the farmers and that o f parents whose children can no longer attend school owing to the animals' terror. Are we of less importance than the animals or what is the government up to?" the councillors demanded in apparent anger.

One of the residents, James Mwangoma, narrated how a herd of the animals destroyed maize farms overnight before straying further into Miyenzeni boarding secondary school. Nobody was hurt during the incident. "These animals are the same that were relocated to Tsavo by the KWS and they are apparently heading back to their original homes in Shimba forest. This area has not had this problem for many years," he said. "However, we have nothing against the wildlife but we are only appealing to the KWS to ensure the animals do not become a menace as irate farmers might be prompted to revenge by killing them," he added. Areas seriously threatened by the jumbo menace include Nunguni, Vyogato, Gona, Vikorani, Miyenzeni and Kaya Duruma on the Indian Ocean coast. Other areas include Laikipia on the western foot of Mount Kenya, Maua areas of Meru, upper Baringo and Eastern Wajir. The elephant menace has reportedly affected school attendance over the past two weeks as parents advised their children to avoid walking in the wilderness for fear of the jumbos.

ON THE WEB

PEW CENTER REPORT ON GHG INVENTORY ISSUES The Pew Center on Global Climate Change report, "An Overview of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Issues" is available at http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/greenhouse.html. This report, prepared by Christopher Loreti, William Wescott, and Michael Isenberg of Arthur D. Little, Inc., identifies credible approaches and offers a set of principles for conducting emissions inventories. The authors identify key decision points in efforts to conduct an emissions inventory. They note that the purpose of an inventory should influence the approach, pointing out, for example, the tension that exists between encouraging consistency in reporting practices and providing flexibility to reflect a specific company's unique circumstances.

PACIFIC INSTITUTE PAPER -CETACEANS AND CLIMATE CHANGE A paper from the Pacific Institute, "Cetaceans and Climate Change" at http://www.pacinst.org/new.html states that the International Whaling Commission has sought to confront the threat to cetaceans from climate change through a research program that began in 1996. However, this program is under funded and the prospects for additional funding from the parties are not good. Moreover, even if the research initiatives of the IWC and other organizations improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on cetacean species, these impacts ultimately can be averted only if nations demonstrate the resolve to substantially reduce emissions. Unfortunately, parties to the UNFCCC have shown little resolve to meaningfully reduce emissions, and even full implementation of the Kyoto Protocol under the treaty would not substantially reduce projected warming over the next century. In the context of climate change, the International Whaling Commission's most important role in the future may be coordinating its efforts with the UNFCCC and other international treaty regimes that have an impact on the viability of cetacean stocks.

WWF SURVEY-WARMING IS SERIOUS THREAT SAY 73% OF US VOTERS According to a new poll released today by World Wildlife Fund, 73% of American voters believe that global warming is a serious threat while 80% want the U.S. government to take action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the most abundant greenhouse gas. Results of the poll, conducted by The Mellman Group, will be distributed to delegates at both national conventions. More information about the poll, as well as the question wording and topline results, can be found at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/news/headline.cfm?newsid=176

COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS

KICKING THE CARBON HABIT Boston Globe 08/07/00 Internet: http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/220/editorials/Kicking_the_carbon_habit+.s html

Grow more trees, the Clinton administration recently proposed as a way to reduce the flow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It is a good idea but can contribute no more than a fraction of what is needed to stabilize, much less reduce, the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. A much wider array of efforts will be necessary to achieve the goals set in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

The proposal has a domestic political element: It was designed to placate congressional conservatives who are skeptical about the importance of curbing emissions or feel that too much burden has been placed on Americans even though the United States contributes 20 percent of greenhouse gases with only 4 percent of the world's population. The Kyoto Protocol has yet to be ratified by Congress, and the grow-trees proposal can be seen as a partial concession to Kyoto's opponents.

The proposal envisions trees and other vegetation absorbing about 300 million tons of carbon dioxide annually by 2010 - only 15 percent of the 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide that will be entering the atmosphere by then. In fact, American coal mines turn out about a billion tons of coal a year, and much of it headed for the atmosphere.

While there are uncertainties about the mechanics of global warming and how much can be attributed to natural temperature fluctuations and how much to the greenhouse effect, one fact stands out: The amount of carbon dioxide has been rising, growing 20 percent in the past 50 years alone. Continued growth will either exacerbate the effects of natural warming or offset natural cooling - neither a desirable outcome.

Conservation and the development of alternative energy sources with less impact on the atmosphere will have to be pursued vigorously in order to reach the targets set in the Kyoto Protocol. Technology has a vital role to play in making more efficient use of energy and developing economically acceptable ways of using alternative fuels, for example. But for the time being, restraint in our use of energy remains the key factor in reducing the risks associated with global warming.

GLOBAL WARMING CREATES UNSTABLE EARTH The Independent 7 August Internet: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/UK/Environment/2000-08/global070800.shtml

By David Keys

The devastating floods in India and massive forest fires in the US are almost certainly connected, and appear to be the predictable consequences of global warming. Many scientists believe that global warming is beginning to destabilise the planet's climate. Aid agencies have been watching in horror over the past few years as the number and intensity of extreme weather events - EWEs - have begun to increase alarmingly.

Over the past three years, more than 20 major EWEs have cost 100,000 people their lives. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies said that climate change is manifesting itself "in a catalogue of disasters such as storms, droughts and flooding unparalleled in modern times. "The world is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters," says World Disasters Report, a recent Red Cross document. Global warming is "making the forces of wind, rain and sun even harder to predict and counter," it says. "The world is at risk as never before." Global warming leads to greater extremes of drought (typically in continental interiors), and flood (in or near continental peripheries) because it increases evaporation and consequently the amount of energy within weather systems. Some regions get drier. Others have more large rainstorms.

The higher level of EWEs has not only killed tens of thousands, but has also robbed up to 300 million - mainly in the developing world - of their homes or livelihoods. In 1999, 40,000 died from massive rainstorm-induced flooding in Venezuela. In Orissa, eastern India, 30,000 died when a 160mph super-cyclone created a 20ft tidal surge, and 10 million others were severely affected. In China, 800 died in more floods - and 5 million others lost their homes or livelihoods. South-east Asia was also hit. So far this year, thousands have died and two million others affected in Mozambique and elsewhere in southern Africa.

David Keys, Archaeology correspondent of 'The Independent', is the author of 'Catastrophe - An Investigation into the Origins of the Modern World'.

KYOTO ACCORD ALARMISTS MISGUIDED, DANGEROUS Chicago Sun Times August 7, 2000 Internet: http://www.suntimes.com/output/business/kyot07.html

BY STEVEN MILLOY

The temperature still hasn't reached 90 degrees in Chicago this summer--a phenomenon not seen since 1916. And the weather is so pleasant in many other areas of the country this summer that talk of the dreaded global warming phenomenon has fallen by the wayside. Even the Clinton-Gore administration is taking a decidedly sheepish approach to one of its favorite international environmental vehicles, the Kyoto Protocol. Drafted at a 1997 conference, the Kyoto Protocol is intended to reduce man-made emissions of heat-trapping ``greenhouse gases,'' such as carbon dioxide produced by burning coal and oil. The agreement calls for the United States to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 2012 to a level 7 percent below 1990 levels.

It has been estimated that to achieve that commitment, the United States would be required to throttle back on the pace of business activity to reduce energy consumption by 30 percent. Because of the economic harm that such a dramatic reduction in energy use would trigger and because developing nations that produce large amounts of carbon dioxide--including China and Mexico--would not be required to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol faces a hostile U.S. Senate.

Now the administration is trying a new tactic to help the treaty's chances--a tactic that exposes the hand-wringing over man-made global warming as the junk science-fueled charade that it is. At upcoming negotiations on implementing the treaty, the administration will argue the United States already has met almost half of its would-be obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The State Department estimates about 310 million metric tons of carbon dioxide are absorbed annually by U.S. forests, crops and soils.

In other words, by doing nothing, half of the alleged problem is solved. If business activity in the U.S. economy maintains its current pace, perhaps the problem-that-never-was will go away. No one disputes that global temperatures have been on the rise. The key question is why. Scientists note that the rise started before the industrial revolution--at the end of the ``Little Ice Age,'' a cold period chilling Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries. Temperatures continued to rise gradually in the 20th century. But most of the temperature increase occurred before 1940, while most of the man-made greenhouse emission occurred after 1940. Meanwhile, the public is bombarded by reports claiming that this month or this year is the hottest on record.

Temperature readings in urban areas are biased by the ``urban heat island'' effect, where asphalt, concrete and steel soak up the sun's rays and warm the surrounding environment. Add in natural phenomena such as El Nino and volcanic eruptions, and much uncertainty looms over the slight and steadily shrinking temperature increases predicted by global warming alarmists. The danger is that senators will be fooled into ratifying the Kyoto Protocol because they can polish their credentials with environmental alarmists without risking damage to the economy that energy reduction would entail. But with a ratified treaty in hand, the global warming mob likely will resort to its extremist position on energy reduction.

Steven Milloy is a biostatistician, lawyer, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute and publisher of Junkscience.com.

FORESTS AND WARMING International Herald Tribune August 9, 2000 Internet: http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/WED/ED/edwarm.html

As forest fires rage in the American West, a link between forests and global cooling may not be immediately apparent. But limiting the emission of carbon dioxide into the air from fuel-burning sources such as power plants and automobiles is not the only wayto control global warming; trees and crops can have an effect by pulling carbon dioxide out of the air. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement aimed at slowing global warming, envisioned nations getting credit for the carbon-cutting effects of properly managed forestry and agriculture. It left for later discussions of exactly how that would work and how much it would count toward the agreed targets for reducing carbon emissions. In the next round of negotiations, the Clinton administration will seek an agreement that allows substantial credit for U.S. forest management and agricultural practices.

The administration estimates that U.S. forests and agriculture can store more than 300 million tons of carbon dioxide each year. That is roughly half the amount of carbon that must be cut from America's annual emissions to meet its first Kyoto target, which kicks in between 2008 and 2012. If the United States got credit for all of that carbon (which officials say they do not expect), it would not have to limit its emissions so sharply, making compliance with the accord easier and cheaper. That worries some environmentalists, who fear that carbon ''sinks,'' as farms and forests are known, will become a giant loophole, allowing countries to claim credit for activities that would have gone on anyway rather than making real changes in practices that are heating up the planet. The approach also will face opposition from countries that do not have the land space to benefit much from sinks credits.

But a properly drawn credit for forests and agriculture has appeal. It can provide incentives to stop destruction of forests and encourage reforestation and better crop management. The United States is willing to phase in the credits, which would limit the amount initially counted against its Kyoto targets. Negotiators ought to be able to find a way to give farms and forests their due without removing incentives to channel economic growth into cleaner - and cooler - paths.

See also-- Washington Post: http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46881-2000Aug6.html

WORD FOR WEATHER THIS SUMMER IS DEFINITELY 'WEIRD' USA Today 3 August

If you think the weather is strange this summer, you're right. It is. It's been cool in the Northeast where it should be sweltering, and sweltering in the upper Midwest where it should be cool. The South is so parched that deer are dying in the fields in Texas. The Flint River in southwest Georgia is so low that the striped bass has disappeared from the upper channel. In fact, the entire state of Georgia, as well as Alabama, has been declared an agricultural disaster area. In the West, dry winds and weeks without rain have created a tinderbox so dry that the Army and Marines have been brought in to fight the worst fire season since 1988. Three dozen giant fires have consumed more than 3.5 million acres of forestland and destroyed seven homes in nine states. And August has only just begun.

Even up in International Falls, Minn., where balmy and 69 is the norm, the thermostat seems as if it's been stuck in the 90s for weeks. ''We're supposed to be the ice box of the nation,'' says Diane Dickson, the manager of the local Dairy Queen, where Blizzards, an ice cream treat, are selling at a brisk pace. ''It's been very hot.''

Weather-linked incidents The weather, as usual, is blamed for a host of other occurrences, from power blackouts in California caused by a heat wave to pitifully small crowds at Atlantic Ocean beach resorts because of cold rains. The Federal Aviation Administration is blaming this summer's snarled air traffic, in part, on an increase in thunderstorms in the Midwest and East.

The weather has been so grim in New England that vacationers are fleeing. In Boston, the temperature did not reach 90 degrees once in July. It also rained almost twice as much as usual: 5.2 inches, compared with the average of 2.8. ''Whenever the weather is this bad for this long, renters will come to the cottage owners and say they have to leave because of a death in the family and ask for a refund,'' says Wendy Northcross of the Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce. ''The owners have gotten pretty savvy about this. A lot of them ask to see a copy of the obituary.''

Says Dean O'Keefe, marketing manager at Six Flags New England in Agawam, Mass., ''We've had more staff than visitors on some days.'' Not that the weather has been all bad. New York's unseasonably heavy rains and cool weather have kept the mosquito population small. That's a huge help to officials fighting the mosquito-carried West Nile virus outbreak there. Washington, D.C., which is usually miserably humid this time of year, had the coolest July since 1918. Along Tornado Alley in north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, there have been fewer tornadoes. That's good news. The sizzling Texas heat is not. ''I'm getting the hell out of hell,'' says Allan Dale, 72, a retiree who has lived in El Paso for the past 15 years.

Hellish summer weather along the Rio Grande River is normal for July and August. What's not normal is that it started in May. Temperatures rose above 100 degrees in May for the first time in three decades, according to meteorologists in San Antonio and Austin. Across the South and Southwest, the drought continues into its third rainless summer. In Texas, 195 of 254 counties in the state have been declared disaster areas. The city of Throckmorton, 160 miles west of Dallas, has 60 days of water left and is building a 20-mile emergency pipeline to the city of Graham, which has offered to share its water.

''If you could see what the fields are like, you'd just want to sit down and cry,'' says Shirley Matejka, meteorologist in the National Weather Service's San Angelo office in west-central Texas. ''They're bare, they're brown. Sometimes you aren't sure if the farmer has planted anything. It just looks pitiful.'' San Angelo received 0.02 inches of rain last month, compared with an average of 4.5 inches.

Why is this happening? Depending on who's doing the explaining, weird weather has many causes. The Millennium theory is in vogue with those who associate hurricanes, droughts and floods with prophecies that anticipate the end of the world. Pollution and urbanization get the blame for heat waves in places such as Florida and Southern California. Last week, searing heat prompted officials in Los Angeles to issue power-saving warnings that included turning down air conditioners. Kert Davies of the Ozone Action group in Washington, D.C., sees the drought, heavy rains and heat as sure signs the ozone layer is disappearing. ''They are in line with predictions that have been coming for years that global warming will affect the weather,'' he says.

National Weather Service experts blame weather-pattern culprit La Niña. Large pools in the Pacific Ocean near the equator cause cooler (La Niña) ocean temperatures, which, in turn, affect the jet stream as it crosses North America. That prompts a variety of weather anomalies, ranging from intense heat to chilly winds. Ants Leetmaa, director of the weather service's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., says a weakening La Niña has been affecting weather for two years. ''We're close to setting 100-year records in many areas,'' Leetmaa says.

Despite its weakening condition, La Niña is expected to continue to affect weather patterns for months to come. ''We don't see it going away overnight,'' he says. So is there any place at the moment where the weather is great? Try the Pacific Northwest, usually noted for its gray skies and endless mist. Mark Twain once wrote that he spent the worst winter of his life in Seattle one summer. This year, the weather is as close to perfect as it gets. It was a big topic at Seattle's 16th Annual Block Watch Night Out on Tuesday. ''Everyone was talking about how nice it has been,'' says Ref Lindmark, a neighborhood activist. ''The newcomers were asking if it's always this nice. And the old-timers said this is the nicest summer they could remember.''

THE PECULIAR ECONOMICS OF GLOBAL WARMING Financial Post - Canada Aug 12, 2000, 1,182 words Internet: http://search.ft.com/search/multi/globalarchive.jsp?docId=000812002306&query =%22global+warming%22&resultsShown=20&resultsToRequest=100

When negotiators at the 1997 Kyoto convention on climate change set out to establish limits on greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries and create incentives for developing countries to control theirs, the potential gains of climate change were hardly mentioned. Countries simply assumed that slowing global warming would produce widespread benefits, and would justify the investments made by each treaty signatory.

Except for the handful of island nations that view global warming -- and the subsequent rise in the sea level -- as a threat to their very existence, nobody seemed particularly concerned about the differential impact of climate change. Yet the scientific evidence amassed over the past five years raises serious issues about these benefits.

First, the estimated magnitude of the benefits from controlling greenhouse gases has fallen. While less warming is still thought to be preferable to more, there is now a lot more reason to doubt that the most expensive control programs -- the ones aimed at the high-hanging fruit -- are worth the expense.

Second, the distribution of the potential benefits from containing emissions is clearly not uniform among countries, or even among regions within large countries. Countries closest to the poles -- notably Russia and Canada -- and even temperate countries such as the United States and Western European nations are now expected to benefit from warming. Only the tropical countries are likely to suffer substantially.

Why have damage estimates fallen? Early studies vetted by the blue-ribbon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- based on estimates that temperatures would rise four degrees to six degrees centigrade by 2060 -- forecast that by that year, unchecked climate change would reduce global economic output by 1% to 3%. This level of damage justified a modest investment in containing greenhouse gases today, and larger investments later on. Based on new data plugged into more sophisticated models of temperature transmission in the oceans, the most recent IPCC climate report forecasts increases of just 1.5 degrees to 4.5 degrees by 2100.

Although the original studies correctly assumed that temperature change would alter the ecology, they failed to note that the consequences for economic productivity would not always be negative. For example, initial findings indicated that climate change would heavily damage regional ecosystems. Whether the ecosystems were crops, forests or grassland, the studies predicted that productivity would fall, and some systems would actually "collapse." But new data suggests global output is likely to increase as carbon dioxide builds up, and many of the ecosystems that cannot tolerate climate change will probably be replaced by new ones that better serve the economic interests of the human population.

Earlier predictions also forecast ecological catastrophes that would transform parts of the Earth into moonscapes. The new predictions envision an expansion of tropical and boreal forest toward the two poles. Of course, any global change of this magnitude would involve local changes that are both good and bad; it is hard to assay the overall impact of such a broad change with models that rely on the limited data now available. The critical point, though, is that the movement of biomes across space is not necessarily threatening to people or even to nature.

As many of the earlier impact assessments focused solely on the damages from warming -- the need for increased electricity for cooling, the deaths of elderly people caught in heat waves -- offsetting benefits were conspicuously missing from these analyses. The energy studies ignored the savings in oil and natural gas no longer needed for heating. The agricultural studies failed to include heat-loving plants that would do exceptionally well in a warmer world. The recreational studies overlooked the prospects for summer activities such as swimming off the beaches of Oregon or fishing in northern lakes. The health studies overlooked the fact that the elderly often live longer in warm places.

These estimated benefits have turned out to be surprisingly large; if they are included, the net economic impact of global warming turns positive. Initial studies generally overlooked the potential for economic adaptation and simply assumed that climate change would happen overnight, when in fact the change would unfold gradually over the century. And over a century, farmers would be able to switch crops and move heat-sensitive crops poleward.

This is not Pollyanna talking. Over the past 150 years, equivalent crop migrations have taken place relatively effortlessly. Farmers shifted the American grain belt hundreds of miles westward in response to changing transportation costs. Farmers can also adapt by changing planting dates, harvest times, tilling strategies and plant varieties. Biotechnology can help, too, by modifying plants for temperature and rainfall. This sort of adaptation would not only reduce crop damage in places that get too warm, but also increase net revenues in places that are currently too cool.

Similarly, adaptation strategies in every other market sector affected by climate-linked change would dramatically reduce damages. Sea walls could be erected gradually over the next century to protect vulnerable coasts from rising sea levels. A careful model of the way forests would actually change in the face of climatic stress suggests that many of the trees could be harvested and replaced as part of normal forestry operations. In fact, a gradual warming would allow more productive forests to replace existing stands and actually increase timber production.

Water shortages in growing metropolitan areas located in semi-arid regions can be avoided merely by taking water away from lower- value uses -- a process that could be facilitated by pricing water according to its "opportunity cost." Reductions in runoff in semi- arid places would presumably still lead to ancillary environmental damage -- but hardly the spread of deserts envisioned by the first generation of global warming studies.

First-generation damage estimates that once were a good reason for rich countries to press for a global warming treaty have since become net-benefit estimates that actually create incentives for delay. New estimates of annual damages in the developed world due to warming even show small net gains (perhaps 0.1% of output).

Even transition economies located in cool latitudes -- for example, China and the former Soviet bloc countries -- have a good shot at winning the global-warming lottery. Indeed, the latter countries are expected to gain between US$86-billion and US$228- billion annually. China, which straddles warm and cool latitudes, would gain an expected US$14-billion to US$42-billion from warming.

Of course, not every country would be better off. Of all the regions in the world, tropical countries have the greatest direct incentive to push for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions -- but these countries effectively boycotted the Kyoto agreement, and influencing the process now won't be easy. As very little climate impact research has been undertaken in tropical countries, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the potential impact of warming in areas where much of the world's population is situated.

One thing is certain: Our growing knowledge about the process of global warming is likely to complicate negotiations over how much to limit emissions and how to pay for the controls. Indeed, once reality sets in, the developed countries may be quite content to argue about treaty details indefinitely before implementing a binding agreement.

As for developing countries, it is one thing for them to acknowledge that greenhouse gases are a threat to their interests and quite another to ask their citizens to accept lower rates of economic growth today in order to spare their grandchildren the uncertain consequences of global warming. The outcome may well be one of little collective action. And so it appears that the world is about to undertake a massive greenhouse gas experiment. Carbon dioxide levels will likely continue to increase, testing the resilience of the planet's biosphere. Although it is impossible to guarantee that good things will come to pass over the next century, the forecasts are decidedly cheerier than they were five years ago.

HOW POLLUTING PLANES COULD PAY The Guardian August 11, 2000 Internet: http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4050292,00.html

By Chris Hewett

Flying by plane produces more greenhouse gases for every kilometre each passenger travels than other forms of transport. Total emissions from aviation are small in comparison to those from private cars or power stations, but they are growing. As Ben Rogers complained on these pages on Monday, as well as carbon dioxide, planes emit nitrogen oxides, which may also be contributing to climate change. Even the water vapour trails that cut across our skies are, at that altitude, a greenhouse gas.

UN scientists recommend greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by at least 60% in the next 50 years in order to prevent dangerous climate change. But fuel used for aviation is exempt by international treaty from any form of tax. There are no regulations on efficiency of aircraft engines. Although there have been improvements in their fuel efficiency, these have been outstripped by growth in demand for air travel. Emissions from international flights are not even subject to the Kyoto protocol, which set legally binding targets for developed countries to cut greenhouse gases.

The climate, so to speak, is changing. The International Civil Aviation Organisation is due to report to the UN framework convention on climate change in autumn next year. The European Parliament is backing proposals for a charge on aviation emissions and the UK government is to set out its thoughts in a white paper within the next couple of years. So far, the airlines have offered voluntary improvements. The government will need to be wary. It is still thrashing out agreements with industrial firms wanting reductions in their obligations under the climate change levy. These were supposed to be finalised over a year ago. Besides, such voluntary initiatives suffer from lack of transparency. They cannot be enforced and create no incentives for companies to strive for improvements beyond the minimum.

The solution, Ben Rogers argued, has to be punitive taxes. There are precedents: most other forms of transport routinely pay either charges or taxes that take their pollution into account. What would the Automobile Association give for a version of the treaties that protect aviation from fuel taxation? In 1996, the Tory environment secretary, John Gummer, backed calls for a global aviation fuel tax to tackle climate change. This remains official policy. But there are problems. Such a tax would require international agreement, not just on the principle but on the mechanism by which such a tax could be put into effect and on the use to which any revenues were put. Given the sort of rows we have in the EU about allowing Brussels to exercise fiscal powers, it seems unlikely an aviation tax would ever be feasible worldwide.

A much better prospect is emissions-trading, for which the Kyoto protocol did create a legal framework. The concept is as follows. Countries or industries are allocated a certain number of permits to emit (pollute). The total number of permits is fixed and declines over a set period. The permits then become a tradeable commodity, so if it is cheaper to reduce emissions in a part of the economy other than their own, companies can buy permits from there. The price of permits should reflect the lowest cost of delivering cuts in emissions across all those involved. The aim is to give governments maximum certainty over total emissions and give business maximum flexibility in delivering the reductions.

Carbon dioxide emissions from international flights are so far not controlled by Kyoto, so as things stand could not participate in emissions trading. Domestic flying could. Emissions from a flight from, say, London to Edinburgh are part of the UK's total allocation of emissions, which are subject to the legally binding reduction target. Emissions from a flight between London and New York do not count in either UK or American totals. This anomaly has to be addressed. If international aviation were included in the Kyoto totals, it would be subject to a 5% reduction from 1990 levels by between 2008 and 2012.

Of course, such an allocation to international aviation would almost certainly not cover requirements if the projections for passenger growth are to be believed. This is where trading comes in. If the airlines wanted to emit more than their allocated permits allowed, extra would have to be purchased from elsewhere. The airlines (and therefore air passengers) would collectively pay for emissions-reduction somewhere else in the world to compensate for those created by flying. This would implement the polluter- pays principle in such a way that those responsible for pollution paid only the lowest reasonable price. Getting agreement along these lines would take time but would be easier than attempting to legislate a global aviation tax. The UK could even lead the way by including domestic aviation in its own emissions-trading scheme, which is now under construction. To avoid unfair treatment, airlines that accepted fixed permit allocations and participated in emissions-trading could be exempted from air passenger duty for domestic flights.

All sectors will have to do their bit to ameliorate climate change - including the airlines that fly between nations and the passengers who use them.

Chris Hewett is at the Institute for Public Policy Research. His report, "Plane Trading: policies for reducing the climate change effects of international aviation", is out on Monday. E-mail: c.hewett@ippr.org.uk

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