California waits on zero emissions
Copyright Financial Times, FT.com
September, 8 2000
By Christopher Parkes in Los Angeles
California's clean air authority met on Thursday to try to solve the impasse it created through its own 10-year-old decree that, starting in 2003, 10 per cent of the cars sold in the state must not emit the merest puff of pollution.
Confronted by the world's carmakers which say it cannot be done, and by local environmental and consumer groups demanding the mandate must be met, the California Air Resources Board (Carb) is expected again to change an edict that has already been relaxed twice.
Lobbyists in favour of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) seized the initiative this week by presenting 50,000 letters urging Governor Gray Davis not to abandon the project and the 90 per cent of Californians who live in areas where air quality fails to meet federal standards.
However, Carb's own analyses suggest its demands remain unrealistic and that on the basis of available technology, the expected cost and doubts over consumer acceptance, manufacturers will be hard-pressed to sell the 22,000 battery-powered vehicles a year implied by the mandate.
In a report last month, Carb staff said by 2003 a small electric runabout would cost $7,500 more than a comparable conventional car, and a vehicle suitable for freeway driving would sell at a $20,000 premium.
"Placing all of those [22,000] vehicles and sustaining those sales in 2004, 20005 and beyond is a significant marketing challenge by anyone's measure," Carb officials said in a report to the board.
Another study by a panel of battery experts concluded that even if mass-produced in volumes of 100,000 a year, the cost of an advanced nickel metal hydride power pack would not be less than about $8,000.
The panel agreed with automotive industry assessments that "major technology advances as well as true mass production would be required to materially reduce advanced battery costs. . . This is considered unlikely for the next six to eight years."
Since 1996, when the first ZEVs became available, only 2,300 have taken to the road. Six models are available, but have been unpopular with general consumers because of their limited range, even though some with advanced batteries can manage 150 miles between charges.
The original decree, which fixed sales quotas for 1998 and 2001, has been relaxed twice, in 1996 and 1998. This week's Carb meeting, according to a board report is the "last significant opportunity to assess [manufacturers'] readiness for meeting the 2003 requirements".
According to industry officials, the most likely outcome will be more concessions, probably allowing manufacturers "credits" for near-zero or reduced emission vehicles such as the hybrid battery-petrol cars already on sale in the state.