Kyoto protocol goals can be achieved at low cost: IPCC
Copyright 2000 by Kyodo News Service
2000-06-21
TOKYO, June 21 (Kyodo) -- Greenhouse gas emission cuts required by a 1997 U.N. climate change accord could cost developed countries less than 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) obtained Wednesday by Kyodo News.The draft, compiled by the IPCC's third working group, said that in most developing countries, the cost of implementing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol commitments is below 1% of GDP but that use of global trading of emission rights "would decrease these costs to well below 0.5% of GDP."
The protocol, adopted by some 160 countries in Kyoto in December 1997, requires that developed countries reduce their carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5.2% from their 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.
Global trading includes an emission-trade mechanism allowing countries that cannot reach their reduction targets to buy emission rights from states that can and a clean-development mechanism enabling nations to get rights to keep on emitting greenhouse gases in return for implementing emission-reduction programs in other countries.
The draft report compared those figures with total expenditure needed for environmental conservation in most industrialized countries, which amounts to 1% to 2% of GDP. "The aggregated costs associated with meeting the Kyoto targets are small compared to the inherent uncertainties in projected economic growth," it said.
"Earlier mitigation action may increase flexibility in moving towards stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; the choice of abatement paths involves balancing the economic risks of rapid abatement now against the corresponding risk of delay," the paper said.
The draft report said promoting greenhouse gas cuts will bring about such benefits as improvement in air quality and preservation of ecosystems. Use of natural gas instead of coal would reduce CO2 as well as air pollutants, thus curbing spending for health protection, it said.
The paper also pointed to the existence of "no-regrets options" in most countries, including developing countries. The benefits of these options such as reduced energy costs and reduced emissions of pollutants equal or exceed their costs to society, excluding the benefits of climate change mitigation, it said.
An example of those options is energy efficiency increase in industry, which would cut current energy consumption by 10% to 30%, the draft said.
In developing countries, adoption of up-to-date environmentally sound technologies offers particular opportunities for increasing standards of living while avoiding greenhouse gas-intensive activities, the draft report said.
"Synergy between sustainable development and climate-change mitigation policies is possible," it said.
The paper also noted the effectiveness of measures such as market-based instruments including carbon taxes and utilization of biomass energy generated from agricultural waste, wood shavings and straw in curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
The draft report is expected to be incorporated in the third IPCC report, scheduled to be put out in 2001. The IPCC was established in 1988 to evaluate global warming scientifically.