World Temps to Reach Highest Average in 10,000 Years
[c] 2000, InterPress Third World News Agency (IPS)
March 23, 2000
By Gustavo Capdevila
GENEVA, Mar 23 (IPS) - Scientists' predictions for climate change imply Earth temperatures will soon average the highest in 10,000 years, warned Godwin O.P. Obasi, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), as the United Nations (UN) agency celebrated its 50th anniversary Thursday.
Obasi stressed that climate change is a reality, not fiction. The further evolution of the phenomenon will result in serious consequences in the physical, environmental and biological realms, he said, and carries grave threats of disturbances in the socio-economic area.
The conviction that the Earth's climate is undergoing major changes is based on research by the scientists of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the WMO and the UN Environmental Programme in 1988.
This group explicitly predicted five years ago that ''planetary climate change will continue into the future,'' an assessment arising from the results of several recognised research models.
These simulations took into account the progression of a certain number of socio-economic trends that include demographic and economic growth, technological advances, energy demands and fuel usage, among others.
The IPCC projections, elaborated using three different socio- economic scenarios, show that the average temperatures of the Earth's surface will rise by one to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
The panel's predictions also indicate that sea levels worldwide will rise 15 to 95 centimetres, though ''best estimates'' place the average increase at 50 cm.
Air pollution created in the production and consumption of energy, as well as volcanic eruptions, includes aerosols (microscopic substances in liquid or solid form that are suspended in air or other gases), especially sulphate aerosols, which harm the radiant energy balance, according to the IPCC.
Another of the panel's predictions is that regional temperature could vary considerably from the planet's average temperatures, creating extreme climate changes from region to region.
Given this outlook, natural ecosystems will find it difficult to adapt as the Earth warms, which is likely to cause the disappearance of many plant and animal species.
These ecosystems include forests, plains, deserts, mountainous areas, lakes, river basins and wetlands, coastal regions and oceans. To protect them, the international community established the Convention on Biodiversity.
Global warming would have serious consequences for human populations living in low-lying coastlands or islands, and would hurt agriculture, wetlands, freshwater sources, seaports and economic activity in general.
Nearly half of the world population lives along coasts and therefore face greater dangers, especially from flooding resulting from storms, Obasi said.
The climate change phenomenon will affect the regional distribution of crops, though the total world food production is not likely to decrease. Production is expected to diminish in some countries, but expand in others, he explained.
The consequences of the changing climate on health will be both direct and indirect. The increased incidence of malaria, dengue and yellow fever is one of the direct effects of global warming because these diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in tropical areas, which will expand as world temperatures rise.
Even minimal climate changes can trigger major shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena and, as a result, the number of natural catastrophes.
Rising temperatures bring with them the intensification of the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense droughts in some areas, and worse flooding in others.
The risk of desertification will increase as portions of the environment become more arid and the soil increasingly degraded as the result of erosion, flooding and human activities, according to the WMO.
Concerns about climate change create new needs for scientific information in order to clarify uncertainties and provide answers to myriad scientific and technical questions, stated Obasi.
The official declared that his agency is willing to provide support for international activities in the area of climate change and variability, oversight, policy implementation, research and forecasting. (END/IPS/tra-so/pc/mj/ld/00)
Origin: Rome/ENVIRONMENT/