REUTERS
NEWS SERVICE
December 30, 1999
SINGAPORE
- As tropical Thailand and Vietnam shivered in chilly temperatures
in the past few days, experts ask whether this is another worrying
sign at the turn of the millennium of an ever more volatile world
climate.
"Our
climate is changing rapidly... our new data and understanding point
to a critical situation," said top officials from the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the British Meteorological
Office in a recent letter to a London newspaper.
The
last months of the millennium have witnessed a string of weather-related
disasters - up to 50,000 people killed by mudslides and
flash floods in Venezuela, 10,000 dead after a cyclone in eastern India,
hundreds dead in Vietnam flooding, and more than 100 killed by storms
and avalanches in Western Europe.
This
followed a 1998 year already labelled by experts as the costliest ever
for insured losses from catastrophes triggered by storms, floods, drought
and fires.
U.S.
temperatures in 1999 will be the second-warmest this century, topped
only by 1998, NOAA said this week.
"As
the average temperature goes up, we can expect more extreme events -
floods, drought, more severe storms," according to British Meteorological
Office head Peter Ewins.
EL
NINO, LA NINA
Scientists
say global warming is not the cause of a familiar weather pattern
in Southeast Asia of a drought-inducing, hot El Nino followed by a
rain-soaked, cool La Nina. But it may mean they happen more frequently.
The
cycle - driven by the warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean - is now
in a strong La Nina phase and U.S. weather experts say it will continue
at least into March.
La Nina
has made the wet season in parts of Southeast Asia wetter than normal
and temperatures have been cool.
Weather
experts attribute the latest cold spell to a strong polar air mass
that moved swiftly into Southeast Asia in recent days from Mongolia
and China.
CAMBODIA
TEMPERATURES LOWEST IN 65 YEARS
The
cold air caused temperatures in Phnom Penh, the capital of tropical
Cambodia, to fall to 16 degrees Celsius (61 degrees Fahrenheit)
last week, the lowest in 65 years.
In
Thailand at least 33 people have died from cold-related causes. At the
country's coldest point at Loei in the northeast, the mercury dived
to 2.9 degrees Celsius (37.2 degrees Fahrenheit) at one stage.
Australia
weather officials said La Nina could also be the cause of cold
weather in the southern hemisphere's summer. Heavy rain has kept holiday-makers
away from Sydney beaches and threatens to douse New Year's
Eve fireworks parties.
And
Vietnam was hit by temperatures as low as six degrees Celsius (42.8
degrees Fahrenheit), affecting coffee harvesting and the drying of
beans.
The
cool temperatures will have slowed growth of tropical agricultural crops
but they are not likely to have caused any significant damage, experts
say. Though floods have hurt output in places, abundant rains will
help crops resume growth as the temperatures rise.
Farmers
are much more fearful of drought, such as that which devastated
Southeast Asian oil palm, coffee, rubber and rice plantations
in 1997. But for the time being at least, there is no sign of a
resurgence of a scorching El Nino on the horizon.